Measuring Risk?

[John Landmark]

Hello BP!

                  A friend sent me the following opportunity;

Miami Condo: 2/2 in a good area with excellent rental market.

Asking Price: 70K, good condition

Monthly Rent: $1,300

NOI: $635 (After HOA, Taxes, Maint, Insurance..)

HOA: $212 (No special assessments), building is from 1979

Investment proposal : Buy and Hold (15 yrs) 

I was wondering if is there a way to forecast HOA? or measure long term risk. When you guys evaluate if a deal is a real deal, how many of you guys measure long term numbers?

I understand that single Family homes are much better investment than condos, but Miami has a huge price gap between them, for that reason beginners investors like me are attracted to condos. Any input will be appreciated. Thank you!! J