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Updated almost 9 years ago,

User Stats

314
Posts
153
Votes
Wes Brand
  • Investor
  • San Francisco, CA
153
Votes |
314
Posts

Worth buying?

Wes Brand
  • Investor
  • San Francisco, CA
Posted

Cap rate: 8-11% (you'll see in a minute)

All cash deal. Price is firm. Duplex, currently 100% occupied. To leave out the boring parts, I have run through the numbers and I come up with a NOI of 10k/year. With a mixture of real numbers and high estimates I get an expense ratio of just over 50% of rents, building is ~80 years old (I gave it 200/mo for maintenance + capex)

Now the bad parts (and what kills the cap rate):

  1. Water damage on the concrete in the basement. Some mold. Dirt + concrete floors.
  2. Roof needs to be replaced. Dry rot in one rafter, clear signs of leaking, water damage on ceiling of a unit. Estimate for repair is 10-15k.
  3. Damage to the siding, potential pest infiltration, they did not inspect for pests (If I think about moving forward with this I'll get someone to look for this)
  4. Furnace+water heaters are on their way out -- 15+ years old for furnace, 10+ years old for water heater.
  5. Sagging floors in basement, inspector said that was common in buildings of this age.
  6. Loose toilets (makes me worry about water damage in the bathrooms -- those bolts don't loosen up on their own normally...)

I'm leaning towards passing on this, but I'm not sure...I'm worried about the potential for major problems in the coming years. I'm a buy-and-hold-forever kind of person. If I bought it now and immediately put 25k into it I'm looking at ~8% cap rate, if I did nothing to it I'd end up with ~11% cap rate (but I'm basically going to have to replace the roof). I suspect I could get that kind of return in a much nicer neighborhood for a similar buy-in price. Basically no chance of appreciation, but rental market should stay strong. 

Does this seem like a decent investment, or not?

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