Bartlett/Memphis Turnkey Analysis (38134)

[Angelo Wong]

Hi,

Currently analyzing a 4/2 in the Bartlett area.  It is in the neighborhood of Blackwell/Yates St. and the Zillow estimates the surrounding houses are around 115-125K for that kind of property.  The county assessor says the property is worth around 108K in 2014.  Not sure if anyone knows how easy/hard it is to find a tenant in that area?

Looks like turnkey bought it at around 72K.

https://www.redfin.com/TN/Bartlett/3105-Yates-St-3...

They are trying to resell at 119K.

Crunching the math at 8% vacancy, 8% repairs, 9% property management fees, $100 CapEx (too much?) I get around $55/mo for cashflow (renting at $1150/mo)--if I discount CapEx it is about $155/mo.

If I get it at 119K and it appraises for somewhere in the mid-120s, I don't really get much instant equity; though this is a long-term turnkey property that I'd hold so I'm wondering how important that is (it'll be appraised again when I sell in the future anyway)?

I guess another question is: for turnkey A class rental properties, what are some criteria that have worked well?  

I currently have cash flow at about $100+ a month (ideally $200+), CoC at 7%+, income-expense ratio at 1%+, and 150K or less for the house. No idea if I'm too strict or too lax?

Lastly, do I need to be concerned about short-term exit strategies on a turnkey?  Seems like I should be happy enough as long as I rent it out and get some cash flow and down the line if it appreciates too much then I'll be needing to sell.  Though not sure what to do if I grab a turnkey and the PM cannot find a tenant for months?

Thanks in advance for any answers!