New member - analysis feedback

New member - analysis feedback

Investor / Real Estate Agent · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2015 · 68 posts · 11 votes

I'm a new member and would love some feedback on our recent purchase and analysis.

We bought a residential property in an upscale neighborhood.  It was built in 1999 and has 3,824 square feet.  They added an in-ground swimming pool in 2004, but otherwise the house was not updated/improved over time.  We bought the house for $98/ft and the average sales price for the area at the time of purchase was $130/ft.  Our plan is a "long-term" flip.  We are making updates/improvements and living in the house.  We plan to put it back on the market within a year.  We were able to finance the property as a commercial loan at 4% with no cash out of pocket.

$371,500 purchase & closing price

$35,000 (projected) improvements

$28,102 holding costs (property taxes, insurance, and debt service)

___

$509,900 projected sales price

$15,297 sales commission split (3%, my mother-in-law is our broker)

$3,500 closing costs

With round numbers, we are looking at $50,000 net profit assuming 1 calendar year. I've calculated our ROI as 13%. The cash-on-cash is somewhat skewed because we're essentially rolling everything back into the line-of-credit/commercial note and spending almost nothing directly out of pocket (104% if we paid all holding costs out of pocket).

I have a detailed spreadsheet, but I'm not sure if I can upload that here.

How does this look, and what other analysis could we be making to continue making sound decisions?

Thanks,

Zane

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Queen Creek, AZ · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
11y

With the price of oil down 50% I would be leery of holding anything in Texas right now.  I remember the last time oil crashed after a boom and it was bad, really bad, in Texas.

If you are living in the house while doing the rehab I would rethink your holding costs in calculating profit.  I am not sure how you got a commercial loan for your primary but you might be able to deduct interest, again not sure because you stated this is a commercial loan.

Check with your tax person but I don't think you will be able to qualify for the capital gains exemption if you are in the house for a short time, i think it needs to be 2 out of the last 5 years as a primary residence, again the commercial loan might hurt you here.

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  • Crystal SmithPro Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    @Zane O. The only problem I have w/ your analysis is time.  A lot can happen in one year.  A $50K renovation, assuming $5K per week, shouldn't take more than 10 weeks.  For safety sake, double it to 20 weeks.  If the renovation is half way decent and the Days on Market average for your area is less than 90 days you should be in & out of the project way before one year.  Why wait one year?

  • Investor / Real Estate Agent · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2015 · 68 posts · 11 votes
    11y

    Thanks for the feedback, Crystal.  I understand your comment on time.  It could be a negative for us if the market changes during holding.  The positive is that we do not have a deadline to sell, so we have some degree of liberty in waiting for the right situation.

    The updates are mostly complete.  Our plan is to list the house in the Spring with our desired asking price (about $140/ft.) and see how the market responds.

    Our local economy and residential market have proven fairly stable over time, so our hope is that our flexibility in timing will help us achieve the best sales price.

  • Queen Creek, AZ · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    With the price of oil down 50% I would be leery of holding anything in Texas right now.  I remember the last time oil crashed after a boom and it was bad, really bad, in Texas.

    If you are living in the house while doing the rehab I would rethink your holding costs in calculating profit.  I am not sure how you got a commercial loan for your primary but you might be able to deduct interest, again not sure because you stated this is a commercial loan.

    Check with your tax person but I don't think you will be able to qualify for the capital gains exemption if you are in the house for a short time, i think it needs to be 2 out of the last 5 years as a primary residence, again the commercial loan might hurt you here.

  • Investor · Spirit Lake, ID · Member since 2014 · 2 posts · 1 vote
    11y

    Just my 2 cents,

    I've been in the oil field for the last 10 years and have worked thru a few ups and downs.  Just from what I've seen in the last few months in and around Midland/Odessa would have me thinking real hard about stretching out a flip any longer then needed anywhere in Texas, other then maybe Austin.  I'm still pretty inexperienced with flips so I can't input to much on your numbers.  Hope the deal works out well for you.

  • Investor / Real Estate Agent · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2015 · 68 posts · 11 votes
    11y

    Thanks again for the input.

    Bob - I lived through, watched, and studied the local market during the last oil bust and economic situation in 2008.  During that time, prices in our area deviated less than 5%.  Holding times were longer, but prices weren't impacted too greatly.  I am aware that if we sell before the 2 year mark well will pay ordinary income on gains versus long-term capital gains.  My accountant believes I won't have any issue still deducting the interest on my return.  "If you are living in the house while doing the rehab I would rethink your holding costs in calculating profit."  Could you elaborate a little further here?

    Jeremy - Midland/Odessa definitely experiences much larger swings in pricing and cost of living then our area in Amarillo.  We are fortunate to have a fairly broadly diversified local economy, even though oil and gas plays a major role.

  • Investor · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2013 · 140 posts · 51 votes
    11y

    @Zane O. Here in two cents from the Amarillo area: Amarillo is a unique place and people that don't live here don't understand that. In the same way that Boston and New York seem like the same place to many Texans, most outsiders think we are all the same place too. Texas is a large state with numerous different local economic drivers. Whats happening at BSA & NW Hospitals, AISD, cattle, cotton, wheat & corn, and most of all PANTEX, trumps anything else in Amarillo. Those places host many of our high income earners. Especially in the demographic your house caters too, Pantex, agriculture, and the hospitals have a lot to do with that market. If you hold, my biggest area of concern is the new development at Hillside & Soncy. Im not sure how fast they will get that done and if it will provide too much competition for your house. To me, this new development looks like its bigger than we can support and could create oversupply.

    I love the idea of you living in a flip and aiming for 2 years to get the tax benefit. Being that our economy is the tortoise and not the hair, I would expect the tax savings to be better than the other benefits as long as we don't create too much supply in this time. The fact that you have a relative in the industry, I would have been keep an alert eye out for you on the price of high end homes as the development takes place. You can always aim to hold for 2 years and list it sooner. 

    The reason why some are saying you don't have to factor in the holding costs into your profits is that it sounds like this will be your primary residence. If so, you have to live somewhere. Assuming if you didn't own this, you would pay something similar, you can somewhat exclude the holding cost from your profit projections. However, if you next primary residence will be much smaller, you will have significant savings on property tax and insurance in a smaller/cheaper place.

     Overall, the numbers look decent to me. I haven't lived in Amarillo forever, but I have minimal fear of what the oil price is doing for our local area. My concerns rest with Pantex (which seems very stable at the moment) and the new Town Square development. 

  • Investor / Real Estate Agent · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2015 · 68 posts · 11 votes
    11y

    Thanks, Blake. I agree whole-heartedly on it being difficult for others to understand a specific area or market like Amarillo, just like it's difficult for me to know the same about different markets.

    As for the Town Square development, I believe their schedule for the residential development and homes of similar specs will be about 3 years out from completion. It's also in Canyon ISD opposed to Amarillo ISD, which I feel is a larger positive to my property.

    In regards to the holding costs, I have factored it both ways and believe there's a numeric value associated with that. I prefer to omitt that for the time-being to assume more conservative projections.

  • Real Estate Investor · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2008 · 547 posts · 214 votes
    11y

    colonies is a very scary place to me at the moment, as mentioned above, the planned development will absolutely FLOOD the market if it goes as planned, then on the other side of your area is new built stuff, and there are some in the high 130s brand new. I have some interest in a house on Spartanburg, smaller then yours but listed just over $115/sqft and getting almost no action.Normally Id say it's a no brainer to wait the 2 years if you can to advoid tax penalties, however this might not be the play for this area.. It could work both ways, if town square is as awesome as they claim, I could see housing prices temporarily increase until they get their developments ready. You just are going to have to watch and play it as the market changes.. Just remember, your in a neighborhood with 1800sqft houses and 12,442sqft estates.. It's hard to comp. $140/sqft.

    Imo $125/sqft is a solid comp. 

    house on Aberdeen, which seems to be a very comparable comp (although doesn't have a to die for pool/backyard) is active, non distressed, at $111.28/sqft.

    I get leads on 200k+ houses often and don't chase them as they're out of my comfort zone, hollar at me if your interested in these leads..

  • Investor · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2013 · 140 posts · 51 votes
    11y

    @Scott How do you feel the new development will change the mid-to lower end areas... Avondale, Southlawn, ect? I know there seems to be lots of apartments going in there. It just seems to much addition for the little population growth we experience here. I hope that if it truly is too big, they will slow down the rollout of the phases.

    In my eyes, we have more middle class families in Amarillo living in homes that are on average much older than in other areas I've lived, DFW, Austin, & San Antonio. Here is seems many people live in a house thats 30+ years old (Wooflin, Bivins, Southdown, Lawndale, Oakdale, Avondale, Westlawn, Olsen, Paramount, Ridgecrest, Georgia Sores, name a few and seems to be were greater than 50% of this demographic lives.  I don't feel like I experienced near that large of percentage elsewhere because the population was growing fast enough that it required a large introduction of new homes onto the market. 

  • Investor / Real Estate Agent · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2015 · 68 posts · 11 votes
    11y

    Thanks, Scott.

    Yes, new construction on the other side of the neighborhood is going from $130/ft - $160/ft. for "non-custom" stuff.  The most similar and recent comp. to my house is on my street with similar size and finish-out (and no pool) and was listed for $143/ft.  It sold somewhere in the mid-$130/ft.  If we get $125/ft. - $130/ft., we will be satisfied.

    I've also watched the houses on Spartanburg and Aberdeen.  To me they're good buys for someone looking to move in and live long term but don't have much margin to flip.  Colonies has about 175 more lots complete in the last two units and those will be open within the next year or so.  Those are essentially the last lots available in AISD (with the unknown status of Woodlands).

    I can't say for sure, but I feel like 3 years is the closest time frame to start seeing completed homes in Town Square, but I guess time will tell.

    As far as leads for $200k+, we would definitely entertain them in Sleepy Hollow and Colonies.

  • Real Estate Investor · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2008 · 547 posts · 214 votes
    11y

    I don't think it will have any effect except on the areas directly next to the development. Tuscany village part of greenways, colonies and hillside terrace. I don't think it'll have a negative effect on those neighborhoods for 3-5 years, as that would be the time frame required imo to develop the neighborhood Mr Williams claims he plans to develope. I think there will a temporary spike in values as people want to be close enough to allow their kids to walk/ride bikes to the area, yet not live in the complex. I think the smartest buy right now is the stuff in hillside terrace, specifically on the north end, like Nancy Ellen street. Can be had for $100/sqft at the moment and is about as close as you can get. I also feel that the development he claims to have planned will not be completed in his life time, something like 10,000 residential houses, most in the upper price ranges, I don't feel that could be added to this area in any short timeframe.

    The apartments are what scares me the most, who's living in them is what I want to know, but my rentals are not in the nicer areas and I've seen no effect on my rentals. 

    As far as southlawn and those lower areas, as terrible as this sounds those imo aren't the people who will be signing up as monthly members to enjoy the ammenties, I doubt most of them even know what's being built. Those neighborhoods are stronger then ever in sales though, there are recent sales in southlawn for the same price per sqft as Zane paid for his mini mansion in colonies, although you can't compare a 4000sqft house to a 1000sqft, that price is crazy for a tiny 2 bedroom, 60 years old in a iffy neighborhood imo, while his is newer built in arguably the best/most desired neighborhood in town. 

    I don't think we have the jobs to support the growth for such priced homes.. There's no new business coming to Amarillo with high paying jobs. 

  • Investor · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2013 · 140 posts · 51 votes
    11y

    @Scott R. Im tracking with you mostly.... I think what Im hinting at here is how an influx in nice, new, high-end property will trickle down to the mid to lower end areas knowing that we likely won't see a large influx of population growth baring a surprise event. I know that the areas I listed don't directly connect in location or customer base with the development, but I guess my though process is that it will effect the close areas, which affects the next step down, which affects the next step, and so on until you hit all areas in town. May be its not that interconnected. The evidence to me is that you do have the 50 year old 800-1000 square foot home regularly selling for $75-85+ a foot. Is that evidence that we don't have enough new entry level homes in the 80-120k price range in town for sale? Is that because investors have gone crazy buying the SFH and turning it into a rentals?

    I have focused a lot in the midrange market because I like that I can get a very solid tenant and still cashflow $150+ a month. I know the cash is better in lower areas, but I haven't been amped about dealing with the hassles commonly associated. However, as I gave gained experience, I am becoming more comfortable with taking a dive in the lower ends.

    As a buy and hold guy, I'm always trying to forecast where we will be in 5-10 years. If you know where we are headed, you can be better positioned to capitalize on the moment. I know we can't predict the future as there is always unexpected events, but we can seek to understand what the actions of today will have on the future.

    Lastly, what are you looking to do in your investing in the near term? I'm always looking to make connections around town and it would be great to know what your aiming for if there is ever a way for a win-win. 

  • Real Estate Investor · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2008 · 547 posts · 214 votes
    11y

    I think one thing that effects us greatly from other bigger markets I've lived/invested in is we're still too small, we don't have and national builders that pump out those $100-150k brand new houses on lots so close you can jump from roof to roof. That's a good and a bad thing. Althought we have a few bigger local builders pumping out the lower prices stuff, n&b being one, I don't feel, besides Perrys companies, we have any companies that do what the national builders do, develope pretty much everything from start to finish, we have builders who buy lots then contract out the work, while the houses MAY be built a little better, the average first time home buyer in this area can't afford most of these areas, and will always push them down to these areas you mention. I invest mostly in lower income.

    As far as what im looking for, I'll consiter anything under $150k, but prefer the under $50k market. 

  • PA · Member since 2010 · 339 posts · 168 votes
    11y

    Will you need to pay capital gains taxes if you live in your primary residence less than two years?

  • Real Estate Investor · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2008 · 547 posts · 214 votes
    11y

    yes

  • Investor / Real Estate Agent · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2015 · 68 posts · 11 votes
    11y

    Great discussion, guys.  Thanks!

  • Investor · AZ · Member since 2014 · 130 posts · 64 votes
    11y

    Great thread here...just curious, Zane, how did you get a commercial loan if you're occupying the property?  I saw someone else ask that here, too.  Enlighten us please.

    ....and welcome to the Bigger Pockets family!

  • Investor / Real Estate Agent · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2015 · 68 posts · 11 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Sheryl Griffin:

    Great thread here...just curious, Zane, how did you get a commercial loan if you're occupying the property?  I saw someone else ask that here, too.  Enlighten us please.

    We have a great relationship with our local bank.  Since the property was specifically for investment purpose, they did not have an issue with giving us a commercial loan to finance.  My father-in-law is my real estate partner, and he's a non-occupant of the property.

  • Queen Creek, AZ · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    @Zane O. If you are living in the property I think you should reduce your holding costs by the amount you would have paid if living somewhere else.  Otherwise you are essentially living for free as the investment is absorbing a cost you would normally pay.

    I am not saying you have to do this from an accounting perspective, but I would check on how that with your accountant.  As long as your business partner doesn't mind absorbing the cost of your housing you can split profit any way you want.

  • Queen Creek, AZ · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    @Zane O.  Personally I think this downturn in Oil will be much worse then '08.  Just my opinion but it looks like prices are going to stay down for a while.  When people in the oil field get laid off they are going to stop making mortgage payments, stop buying new cars, stop going out to eat, etc.  When these secondary businesses cut back they will reduce the number of employees and those people will cut back.  This is going to have a wide spread impact on the economy over the next few years.

    In a few years there will likely be a great opportunity to buy distressed assets cheaply again.  That will be the time to buy.  It's a business cycle, not the end of the world and people that position themselves correctly will do very well.  Those that don't will struggle.

  • Investor / Real Estate Agent · Amarillo, TX · Member since 2015 · 68 posts · 11 votes
    11y

    @Bob E. I have run the calculations reducing the holding costs about 50% as well, and the returns look even nicer.  I just like to keep the most conservative numbers in mind.

    I feel the same way you do about an overall slowdown/pullback within the next two years and also agree with your sentiments on business cycles.  We are trying to position ourselves as positively as possible before that time to be able to take advantage of as many opportunities as we can when they arise.

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