[Calc Review] Help me analyze this duplex in Michigan - are these numbers correct?

[William Taylor]

Posting this duplex that I found here in the heart of Eastern Michigan, I've been frequently trying to run numbers on duplexes and investment property listings as an up and coming agent and investor to try and gain whether a deal is good or bad. For this example it looks like I would need to buy it for much less than asking price if the numbers stand right, can an experienced rental/flip investor look and see if these are sound? If I purchased this property for $179k instead (much below asking price), it would net out about $350 in monthly cashflow. What do you guys think? 

Also looking further - it looks like it would negatively cashflow until the last few years. Is this accurate? 

Zillow link - https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/418-Olive-St-Ypsilanti-MI...

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*This link comes directly from our calculators, based on information input by the member who posted.

[Drew Sygit]

@William Taylor

Michigan has some of the most complicated property taxes in the USA. Here’s what to know.

State Equalized Value versus Taxable Value

Back in 1994 Michigan passed the Headlee Amendment:

(http://www.legislature.mi.gov/(S(k5m2va1uyfgwtbyjf4nqb1bx))/mileg.aspx?page=LoadVirtualDoc&BookmarkID=6536)

that capped annual increases to the Taxable Value of a property to the lower of 5% or Michigan's Cost of Living increase. This was done to protect senior citizens on fixed incomes from being forced to sell their homes due to unaffordable property tax increases.

Since the passing of this amendment, all properties in Michigan have two property tax values associated with them:

1. State Equalized Value (SEV): supposedly equal to 50% of the market value of a property, not based on recent sales price.
2. Taxable Value: the SEV annually capped as long as there is not a transfer of ownership.

City Assessors are charged with determining how much property values have changed each year. Since they can't do each property individually, they use comparable sales to make broad generalizations to determine percent changes. Then these are applied to all properties in that area of the city.

Property owners get an annual update on their SEV & Taxable Values with their city property tax bill, typically sent in December.

So now, the city assessor tracks the SEV, but homeowners are taxed based upon the capped Taxable Value. These two numbers diverge over time as the SEV increases with property value, but the Taxable Value is capped. The Taxable Value is uncapped and equated to the SEV upon a sale or other transfer of property ownership, with limited exceptions.

Homestead versus Non-Homestead Millage Rates

Counties & cities in Michigan are allowed to set their own millage rates, with one restriction – a primary residence (Homestead) is exempt from up to 18 mills of school taxes on their Homestead property. A property qualifies as Homestead for this exemption if an eligible owner files a Principal Residence Exemption (PRE): https://www.michigan.gov/taxes/0,4676,7-238-43535_43539-210891--,00.html#:~:text=Section%20211.7cc%20and%20211.7,purposes%20up%20to%2018%20mills.

Many investors have gotten an ugly surprise when they bought a property that was a primary residence of the seller for the last 20 years. The removal of the Taxable Value cap and the switch to Non-Homestead millage rates can double, even triple, the property taxes. By the way, the cutoff date is June 1 of each year for these changes.

City & County Tax Bills

Most Michigan properties receive TWO annual tax bills - one from the city and one from the county. Many banks handling tax escrow accounts for mortgages have mistakenly thought there was one tax due twice/year or totally missed one of the taxes.

Investors should research the SEV and the Non-Homestead property tax millage rates to project what the property taxes will be after adjustment.

You can use this tool to estimate future property taxes: https://treas-secure.state.mi.us/ptestimator/ptestimator.asp