Is this a good deal or not?

[Marc Cesar]

spoke to a seller who turns out to be a probate lead. He has not assigned an asking price of his property. I calculated the ARV to be 698,281. Repairs are about $5120-6400 cosmetics updates). After doing the 70% rule of thumb equation i came up with an offer of 424K. The property is valued at $625k. Is this a good deal and are my numbers making any sense??