Being Swallowed Alive: The Collapse of San Francisco

Being Swallowed Alive: The Collapse of San Francisco

Rental Property Investor · Member since 2020 · 83 posts · 65 votes

I was born and raised in San Francisco and as we all know, this city is changing big time. My wife and I felt fortunate that we were able to buy a home here in 2016 despite the astronomical cost. Our children know nothing else but being able to walk just a few feet from our door to buy dim sum, a burrito or an ice cream. The diversity and difference among residence is a strength and something we value greatly. However, the techie exodus is breaking our business plan and we don't know what to do. I'm trying to learn OOS investing in Ohio - Cleveland and Columbus, but I also need to solve the crisis forming from the roof over our heads.

We bought a house needing remodel and once all was said and done sunk $1.14M into it. We borrowed from the bank and from family for the down payment so our debt service is high. Fortunately, although our property is a SFH on paper, the downstairs has a discrete entrance and we've been renting it like an inlaw. That income has allowed us to live at modest cost and at less than what comparable rent would be for the space we occupy upstairs. Until now... Rents across the city are falling. We think once our tenants lease is up in summer,, they'll want to move on to a larger space, in a better neighborhood for less money or out of SF entirely. At the same time, vagrants suffering from drug and alcohol abuse are for the first time pitching tents on our street.

We feel trapped between falling rents and falling home prices, rent control, and bad city policies on crime and homelessness. We aren't political people, we just want to live in peace without loosing our shirt financially.

We've thought about lowering the rent downstairs to keep the tenants but rent control would prevent us from raising it later. We are after all in the most tenant-friendly city in America. We thought about renting the entire home if they move out, but think we'd still be underwater $1.5k-$2k each month (rents are down +30% YTD across the city). SF only allows 60 days of airbnb per year unless you stay in the property. Or, if we sell, we'd likely lose our portion of the down-payment and possibly some that we borrowed from family.

Covid 19, the techie exodus and bad City governance has completely broken our business model for house-hacking San Francisco. We are being swallowed alive and can't seem to devise a clear path forward without going underwater every month or taking a six figure loss on a sale. I keep telling my wife that we can't throw good money after bad, but I too don't want to sacrifice half a decade of home and savings to get out of the crisis taking over San Francisco. And for those that think this city is a sh*those, it is, but not because residence are too liberal or somehow deficit or foolish. People here are open-hearted and compassionate. But, we have poor leadership and there is too much money and power to be lost if the policies destroying the city are changed for the bettrr. Greed isn't the exclsuive eomain of our city. It's just more obvious because of how beautiful it once was just a few years ago.

If you guys have suggestions or opinions, I'm all ears and would love to hear them.

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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
5y

while tempting the grass is not greener..  

If retail buyers are lining up like the person above mentioned and your really worried Sell out and then rent since rents are way down.     And if you dont need to be in SF for work maybe you can look at other areas for employment..  U can buy a fantastic home in the Portland metro area for 500 to 700k  New construction like we are doing in Canby Oregon..

for rentals I like Vegas frankly.  I have invested in all the markets you mentioned and Vegas A class is something to think about..  when you run all the numbers.  And maybe U want to concentrate on something else that creates income other than Tenants..  there are many ways to make money in real estate without rentals.  Just say in.. granted its the easiest to understand and get financing for.. but maybe open your thought process.

Now you may get all sorts of replys from the folks in the mid west looking to sell you something.

But let me give U reality.. I had a HML company in Oakland in 87.. this was typical deal I made a 200k second on wonderful home on Green st. a few blocks off of Lombard to the west..

the 89 crash happened and well there was a 900k first on it. that went into foreclosure the folks that made the loan just did not want to throw good money after bad ( like your saying) so they let it go..  Well that 5,500 sq foot home by 97 was worth well over 2.5 mill and today who knows 4 to 6 million ????  SF bounces back.. when i made the loan in 87 I had a MAI appraisal at 2 mil..  so values did crash.. but Boy did they come back.

I dont know where your located out in the Avenues or Bay View or some other area..  but keep that all in mind.
I mean what are you going to do with 100 or 200 a month cash flow on a few rentals half way across the country that will never really go up in value more than what rents are and what a investor will pay for a given cash flow.

I get the model to stack those up and really go for it.. I mean i did it.. I had over 200 of them .. Last month I sold my last mid west rental..  all gone now..   So just playing devils advocate from someone who was born in Burlingame in the 50s and raised in the bay area ..

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  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2020 · 83 posts · 65 votes
    5y

    @Diane G., thank you. The tech heavy areas are definitely taking a hit. Those jobs aren't coming back so high-income job growth will have to come from something else. I think the city will change it's polices for the better eventually but only before things get worse and after, at minimum, a few more political cycles. I think OOS and out of California investing can work fine for the right investor. Seems many have done well doing just that. And seems many like you have done fine staying in the State.

    I would say this: the wave that carried SF on to become the most expensive city in the world have shifted. They will return at some point but not in the same form and at a different velocity.

  • Dylan VargasPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Chico, CA · Member since 2016 · 625 posts · 336 votes
    5y

    @Jc M. Welcome! I would run the numbers and go from there. If you rented another home would that cost you much less than your current house payment and lower unit rental? If you are breaking even I would stay put and wait it out. If you cant tolerate the pain outside the home list and sell. Meet with a Realtor (its free) and see what they would list at. You dont have to sell if you dont like the price or offer. Everyone has there own tolerance level. Do what lets you sleep at night. There will always be more opportunities. Good luck and keep us posted.

  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2020 · 83 posts · 65 votes
    5y

    @Dylan Vargas, you are absolutely right! Met with four different realtors back in August. All but one thought we could sell and net a gain. I was skeptical and the fourth thought we should just wait to see what happens. Despite the supposed data on SFH prices holding up well in the city, many homes in my neighborhood are sitting on the market well past 90 days. Either buyers come back soon or those prices have to drop. I lean towards holding if we couldn't recoup the money we put in. We'll see...

  • Member since 2020 · 104 posts · 54 votes
    5y

    SF aint coming back.......lol.    When Charles Schwab  decided to move to TEXAS its over.  The FAT lady has sung. 

    The Mantra on BP is buy where the jobs are going jobs surely arent headed SF way.

    Caveat.  IF SF elects a Rudy Giuliani it could come back.  But like they say HOPE isnt a strategy.

  • Investor · Northern New Jersey · Member since 2020 · 94 posts · 96 votes
    5y

    @Joseph Mah

    The hold won't even take that long. Maybe a year or so and you will be back on the upswing.

    Unfortunately, the drug addicts and the homeless are part of the correction. Eventually they will leave and find refuge else where . Most likely were everyone is running to and SF will take off like a rocket ship.

    When I was a kid (in the late 90's) as a east coaster I use to ride skateboards out in SF. Back then the Mission District was nothing but a waste land filled with junkies, homeless squatters and you could buy property for nothing. Look at were it is now roughly 20+ years. Insanely expensive.

    Its a marathon not a spring! We are wealth building not flipping

  • Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5y

    @Jc M. You made a good basic investment IMO so first, don’t panic! I know SF is in a tough position now, but don’t buy into the BS media hype. SF is not going down, tech is not dead by any stretch of the imagination, and the BS social policies will reverse themselves. If you’ve lived here as a native I’m sure you’ve seen this dynamic unfold before...like during the early 2000’s. To put it succinctly, in dynamic RE markets like SF, when it rains it pours, on both the ups and the downs (although prices drop are maybe 10-20%, but the ups reach 100% :) There are a lot of sensational click bait articles on forever dead office buildings and SF’s demise, and they are dead wrong! Young people will start returning to the city later in 2021, and even more in 2022. Both new grads wanting an urban environment and those that left by pandemic-panic...after they realize that cavorting around in a cookie cutter and soulless suburb (often with crappy weather...too hot or  cold) ain’t what they thought it would be. And remember, due to rent control and so many units (effectively hoarded) off the market, the relative available rental market here is small. Doesn’t take a lot of people coming back to reset rents to positive territory. That, plus new developments will be dead in the next 2-3 years, so not much new inventory coming after 2021. 

    As to your specific case: yeah the rental market is horrible NOW (like from October; in the summer it was better). But I think it will stabilize and slowly improve starting in the spring. So a summer renewal may not be too bad. An inlaw in the excelsior should be nowhere near a 30% hit in rent. That mostly happened in soma and DT high rise/expensive condos. Try to keep current tenant, maybe offer. a modest reduction if needed. Otherwise re rent it, and look for younger people that will not squat there forever.

    One investment you may want to consider (if you haven’t already done this), is legalizing the inlaw unit. Or legalizing the rooms down as part of the main house, but still make that space rentable as a second unit. You’d need a good architect to get this through SF’s arcane planning and bldg depts, but it can be done. Either way you legalize 550 sq ft, which will add several hundred thousand $$ in value. I’d focus on that rather than risking $$ in unknown out of state markets. Good luck!

  • Realtor · Napa, CA · Member since 2018 · 112 posts · 77 votes
    5y

    @Jc M., Wow! only .6% is the allowable increase?! I did not know SF went so drastic on limiting the increase rate. Wow, just Wow. talk about being tenant friendly. That right there is why I am scared to invest in CA because it could be a matter of time before all of CA does something that crazy! Well now I see why lowing the rent is such a burden for you!

    As for the homeless, yeah, being Law Enforcement, I see it everyday with the drug users and mentally ill homeless population. I wish there were options for the citizens that these transients burden but unfortunately CA makes that really hard, especially when we can't even kick them out of they are on public land, we have to "give them notice" to move (basically evict them) and then they leave all their garbage. You should ask the police captain over there if they have a Problem oriented policing unit or community oriented policing unit to see if they can focus on your neighborhood. The one thing homeless people hate is attention from LE. Good luck and look towards the future, maybe it is far away from SF, at least for now.  

  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2020 · 83 posts · 65 votes
    5y

    @Joe Edwards thank you. All good points. I think the issue for us is that we rely on rental income. We are directly exppsed to the effects of the city's bad policies and in one of the least desirable neighborhood's from a stack-ranking perspective (the people are great but we are far-removed from the tech money that was pouring into San Francisco).

  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2020 · 83 posts · 65 votes
    5y

    @Ronnie Galindo, we've actually been working with a Sgt. who is attache to the Cpt. and have met with him a few times too. They all get it, but the City doesn't and homelessness is a hot-button. No politician wants to call out the problems with the very term itself nor the city's failing policies. In-fact, Mayor Breed is implementing LE policy where policy will non longer respond to non-violent calls for service. I don't think her heart is in the wrong place, but this will only exacerbate existing issues.

    SF restricts rent increases to only 60% of what they determine to be the applicable local rate of inflation. In other words, renters pay less and less overtime, and that's their objective.

  • Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5y

    way

    too

    pessimistic 

    —————-

    3words/1chart

  • Professional · Anaheim, CA · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 686 votes
    3y

    @Diane G.

    This post is 3 years old, and following up on the condition of SF. Downtown SF has gotten worse to the point homeless everywhere, tents, drug usage, SF city council and police doing nothing or can't do anything, shoplifting, etc. The biggest travesty or opportunity are the historic commercial buildings selling for 60-70% discount of FMV due to no tenants and work from home policies.

    Is SF going to recover or can it recover? I think it can but will need new leadership/conservative no nonsense policies like arrest shoplifters. Promote business friendly policies and enforce the law.

    Rents both commercial and residential going down. Would you sell your (4) rental properties or wait it out? Would you invest now in SF or still further way down?

    Terry

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