Rookie Refinance Crossroads (BRRRR)

[Daniel Judge]

Hello, I'm looking to get some expert opinion/advice for a situation I'm considering on my first BRRRR deal.

Background: I have a duplex in a gentrifying Columbus, OH neighborhood. Doing the BRRRR model and nearing the end of the Renovation stage. I have linked with a reputable property manager in the area and he believes he can get each unit rented in the $1000-1100 range. This was his belief just as the COVID-19 situation was picking up the pace and Ohio had just put together its stay-at-home order. I've reduced that projected rent number in my calculations to be a bit more conservative:

https://www.biggerpockets.com/calculators/shared/1428009/6e5dfb34-1964-4d99-9341-a0096d519744

My Dilemma and Question: The linear approach to the BRRRR model would be to get it rented up and then do the refinance, but I am considering reversing that order (refinancing now even though we don't have any tenants in there yet). Would it make sense to refinance before renovations are 100% completed and without renters in place given the current uncertainty out there? 

I have a lender that is willing to give a decent rate ($163,000 at 4.75% 30-year fixed with $5925 in closing costs wrapped into the loan). I have that locked for the 8 days. 

The reasons I'm considering doing are the following: 

1) I have already noticed some tightening taking place in the lending world. I have some anxiety that lenders will continue to become more conservative given the environment and I don't want to be caught holding the bag.

2) The difference between my current holding costs and the principal and interest payments on the new loan would be marginal. Even if it takes a couple months to find tenants, I shouldn't have much difficulty paying on the loan. And initial (anecdotal) reports are that vacant units in Columbus are still getting leased at a fairly normal pace. 

3) Having the cash out would allow me to be more nimble. 

The reasons I'm cautious to jump into the loan right now:

1) The appraisal. The interior of the home is 100% renovated but there are still some things needing done on the exterior. The facade needs tuck pointed, there is a front porch needing sanded down and repainted, fixing a couple glass block windows in the basement, and I am planning on getting a new privacy fence installed as well as a concrete parking pad in the alley. Plus some minor landscaping. Those would take a few weeks while the appraisal will probably happen in about 10 days. I'm worried that the appraisal may come in low and would be more confident in the appraisal process if all of those improvements were already in place. 

2) Being new to this, the one thing I've tried to keep in mind is that I don't always know what I don't know. I'm sure there's some seasoned investors out there that have a more developed and nuanced view of this situation than myself and I'd love to hear from them.

Appreciate you reading this and I'm happy to provide additional details that might inform your response. Thank you!