Does this make sense ?

[Charles Chiu]

Hi I am a newbie to BRRR and I am looking at a potential first deal. Here are the numbers and the way i think of it. I would love to hear your opinions. Thanks in advanced.

purchase price: 150k
rehab estimate: 180-200k
ARV: 360-400k
rent estimate 2,880
loan interest rate: 7.25%
cash flow: $100 / month

Based on the analysis i did, the monthly cash flow would be somewhere around 100 bucks if I manage the property myself and very thin on reserve and potential vacancy. 

i think there are 3 potential risks I can identify.

1. ARV may not be as expected
2. Rent may not be as expected
3. Have a good chunk of cash locked in the property after taking out 75% of ARV

However, there are also positive factors:

1. There could potentially be 50+k equity gain
2. IF (and a big IF) interest rate goes down in the next 12-24 months, cash flow can be better after refinance

This is my first potential BRRR project and am a bit nervous because of the amount of rehab required.
Just want to know if there is any major pitfall in the logic above.
Thank you! Thank you!