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Updated over 8 years ago, 05/11/2016
Best place to find historic data for home values by neighborhood?
Just like the title says, I'm trying to find a chart of average home values going back to at least 2000, by neighborhood if possible. Zillow doesn't usually go back that far and often is only by city.
Any tips on where to find this data?
The purpose of this is to compare asking prices with where the market is now to what the seller paid when they bought the property.
That won't really help you much. Just because someone maybe paid 200K in 2007 doesn't mean that it was really worth 200K then, because there was a bubble. And they could have spent years underwater and are only now back to what they paid.
Part of me always wants to laugh, when I see someone write that they got this fantastic deal at 100K, because the seller bought it for 500K in 2008. Means nothing.
@Michaela G., that makes sense, but is not how I'm trying to use the data. If I can see that someone paid 100k in 2008, and that the market now is comparable to say the market in 2004, and the prices rose 40% from 2004 to 2008, then I can come to the conclusion that the house now is probably worth more like 60k.
Neighborhood Scout and a few other sites might have this info for free or paid subscription.
I would call a few real estate agents in the actual neighborhoods and I'm sure they could find it for you quick. You could act as a buyer, but I would just tell them what I'm doing and offer them my transaction if I ever buy in that town. Someone will be smart enough to take the offer and I would send them a visa gift card afterwards.
Originally posted by @Joe Henry:
@Michaela G., that makes sense, but is not how I'm trying to use the data. If I can see that someone paid 100k in 2008, and that the market now is comparable to say the market in 2004, and the prices rose 40% from 2004 to 2008, then I can come to the conclusion that the house now is probably worth more like 60k.
I really don't see how that helps you. Different markets in different neighborhoods. One neighborhood may have gone up 40% and the one next to it 20%, because the first one has better schools or the hipsters have come in.
So, if you're working a particular neighborhood, then you might as well look at recent comps to find the values. Just because you think JAX values may have increased a certain percentage, does not mean that every neighborhood is in that range.
It's location, location, location
@Michaela G., well I agree with you, that's why I was asking about home values by neighborhood ;)
You best bet and best data will come from a local real estate agent or local appraiser. I am a agent in CA and I have access to graphs and data going back many years. Your local realtors with access to mls will have that data also.
@Gordon Cuffe, thanks! I will ask my agent then.
But it doesn't matter what the prices were 10 or 15 years ago.
Since you're a software developer, computers are obviously your comfort zone. Spending a lot of time with those percentages won't get you your first deal. While you waste your time with that, others are running circles around you, snatching up any deals.
this has nothing to do with computers. It simply stands to reason that if a buyer paid fair price (fair market price) sometime in the history of the market, and you know the historical values of the market and where the market is now, then you can use that to calculate fair price now. Of course there are other factors (home improvements, etc), but this is just a general estimate. This is simple math.
I do not consider finding the fair market value of a property a waste of time. If you do, you are welcome to purchase properties without knowing that. I know about comps, but I'm asking for something different in this particular thread, for my own reasons.
I would also argue that it does matter what prices were 10 or 15 years ago. If you know that a property was purchased for 100k during the height of the bubble, and a seller is asking 100k now, you are most likely overpaying - maybe not overpaying by market price, but by true value, yes.
This is not how successful investors make their money - they don't buy good deals for the market, they buy good deals, period. Deals that are judged good by true value.
You don't really need to tell me how to buy good deals! I've been doing that for many years and am full-time. You're the one that is new and wants to spin his wheels, so that he feels that he's actually doing something. Go for it!
@Michaela G., I don't know why you are insinuating feelings. But I do appreciate your thoughts on my original question regardless, so thank you.
@Joe Henry I always search on Zillow which is just data pulled from county records in my area. I like to know the sales history on a property because it is relevant to how I negotiate. I don't use it as the end-all source of value. I also look at neighboring houses for last sales value. I don't trust agents or appraisers. Agents can be optimistic and appraisers are usually conservative.
@Joe Splitrock, thanks for the advice.
@Joe Henry, I too have been searching for that same type of information myself only I'd like to broaden the search to historical prices in my local market, Kansas City, over the previous 30 years. Thus far I haven't found much more luck than it appears you have.
I had an epiphany after listening to the Serge Shukhat's podcast #60. Here's a bit of the transcript:
"Okay, looking at the analytics and the pure metrics of the real estate market in Metro Phoenix.” I looked at the—I still remember this one graph that showed income as a proportion—income to real estate prices. The ratio of income for the Metro Phoenix area to the cost of real estate and the relationship over the past 30 years and that real estate always, Arizona is a cyclical market, very ups, very fast downs.
It would always fall at a very specific ratio, which was defined as equilibrium, okay. Over the 30 years, it was always, homes were always trading at that equilibrium price. Low and behold by the end of Q1 2009, we were probable 70% below that equilibrium price. What I saw was that we were—that the market had over corrected to a point where it was just—it was a no brainer—it was a no brainer."
This made me totally change my philosophy behind when to purchase buy and hold, and when flipping is more profitable. What if there were a way to look at historical prices of homes in a specific market, and plot those prices on a graph next to any other number of values as well such as employment rate, or average income, ect. The investor armed with that information would be much better equiped to know what the intrinsic values of these homes are and not what the whimsical market demands right now.
Have you had any luck since this post in finding this info?
Hey Carl, very interesting stuff. I haven't had luck other than a few personal websites of people who have tracked this stuff themselves for their particular towns, but nothing even for Jacksonville, where I'm looking. But maybe that means there is someone in your area who has the data. If you go to your local RE Investor Association, maybe some older experienced people who have been investing since the 70s or 80s have that data?
Please let me know if you find anything. I'll do the same.
@Joe Henry Don't let other people get you down. I for one am very interested in how you get this data and what you create with it.
I think this is a great question, Joe. I'd also be interested to hear some people's insights on resources that provide info on estimated asking or in-place rent growth trends from a metro level, sub-market level and property level. I know CoStar sort of has this, but it's fairly cost prohibitive .
Also if there are other resources to see approved construction permits for specific projects and/or their use types (i.e. retail - grocery, special use - school, etc.) that would be beneficial to provide some data to support the economic story. In other words, it would sell the market that has the most robust growth by having the data points to back up the story. I know some brokers tend to have this data in broad strokes, but if there's a resource to dig deeper and see specific trends and data points, I think it'd be very helpful.
Thanks
@Joe Henry, good tip on networking local. I'll keep my ears open for this info and likewise will let you know if I'm able to put this kind of information together