Best place to find historic data for home values by neighborhood?

Question

Just like the title says, I'm trying to find a chart of average home values going back to at least 2000, by neighborhood if possible. Zillow doesn't usually go back that far and often is only by city.

Any tips on where to find this data?

The purpose of this is to compare asking prices with where the market is now to what the seller paid when they bought the property.

Carl Snyder · Answer

@Joe Henry, I too have been searching for that same type of information myself only I'd like to broaden the search to historical prices in my local market, Kansas City, over the previous 30 years.  Thus far I haven't found much more luck than it appears you have.

I had an epiphany after listening to the Serge Shukhat's podcast #60.  Here's a bit of the transcript:

"Okay, looking at the analytics and the pure metrics of the real estate market in Metro Phoenix.” I looked at the—I still remember this one graph that showed income as a proportion—income to real estate prices. The ratio of income for the Metro Phoenix area to the cost of real estate and the relationship over the past 30 years and that real estate always, Arizona is a cyclical market, very ups, very fast downs.

It would always fall at a very specific ratio, which was defined as equilibrium, okay. Over the 30 years, it was always, homes were always trading at that equilibrium price. Low and behold by the end of Q1 2009, we were probable 70% below that equilibrium price. What I saw was that we were—that the market had over corrected to a point where it was just—it was a no brainer—it was a no brainer."

This made me totally change my philosophy behind when to purchase buy and hold, and when flipping is more profitable.  What if there were a way to look at historical prices of homes in a specific market, and plot those prices on a graph next to any other number of values as well such as employment rate, or average income, ect.  The investor armed with that information would be much better equiped to know what the intrinsic values of these homes are and not what the whimsical market demands right now.

Have you had any luck since this post in finding this info?

Joe Splitrock · Answer

@Joe Henry I always search on Zillow which is just data pulled from county records in my area. I like to know the sales history on a property because it is relevant to how I negotiate. I don't use it as the end-all source of value. I also look at neighboring houses for last sales value. I don't trust agents or appraisers. Agents can be optimistic and appraisers are usually conservative.

Gordon Cuffe · Answer

You best bet and best data will come from a local real estate agent or local appraiser. I am a agent in CA and I have access to graphs and data going back many years. Your local realtors with access to mls will have that data also.

Roger Vi · Answer

Neighborhood Scout and a few other sites might have this info for free or paid subscription.

I would call a few real estate agents in the actual neighborhoods and I'm sure they could find it for you quick. You could act as a buyer, but I would just tell them what I'm doing and offer them my transaction if I ever buy in that town. Someone will be smart enough to take the offer and I would send them a visa gift card afterwards.

Carl Snyder · Answer

@Joe Henry, good tip on networking local.  I'll keep my ears open for this info and likewise will let you know if I'm able to put this kind of information together

Peter Butler · Answer

I think this is a great question, Joe. I'd also be interested to hear some people's insights on resources that provide info on estimated asking or in-place rent growth trends from a metro level, sub-market level and property level. I know CoStar sort of has this, but it's fairly cost prohibitive .

Also if there are other resources to see approved construction permits for specific projects and/or their use types (i.e. retail - grocery, special use - school, etc.) that would be beneficial to provide some data to support the economic story. In other words, it would sell the market that has the most robust growth by having the data points to back up the story. I know some brokers tend to have this data in broad strokes, but if there's a resource to dig deeper and see specific trends and data points, I think it'd be very helpful.

Thanks

Major Robertson · Answer

@Joe Henry Don't let other people get you down. I for one am very interested in how you get this data and what you create with it.

Joe Henry · Answer

Hey Carl, very interesting stuff. I haven't had luck other than a few personal websites of people who have tracked this stuff themselves for their particular towns, but nothing even for Jacksonville, where I'm looking. But maybe that means there is someone in your area who has the data. If you go to your local RE Investor Association, maybe some older experienced people who have been investing since the 70s or 80s have that data?

Please let me know if you find anything. I'll do the same.

Joe Henry · Answer

@Joe Splitrock, thanks for the advice.

Joe Henry · Answer

@Michaela G., I don't know why you are insinuating feelings. But I do appreciate your thoughts on my original question regardless, so thank you.

Best place to find historic data for home values by neighborhood?

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