Would you bet on Buffalo, NY?

[Emil Hovgaard]

I am analysing the Buffalo, NY market and would like your opinion on whether you think it is an attractive market or not - and why!

The facts are:

Annual forecasted % change from 2017-21:

• GDP 1.6%
• Employment 0.4%
• Unemployment rate (% of workforce) 4.9%
• Household disposable income 1.0%
• Population 0.0%

To me those projections aren’t the most attractive compared to (1) other individual markets in the US, or (2) the US national average as a whole.

I see Buffalo’s biggest strength to be affordable housing, but I am concerned about (1) its dependency on traditional manufacturing, as other booming areas have moved into tech and services, as well as (2) the ageing population combined with 0% growth until 2021.

Initiatives aiming to grow the city appears to be (1) Buffalo Billion (subsidies to e.g. Solar City) and (2) the major expansion of the University of Buffalo’s medical school.

What do you think of this case? What are Buffalo’s strengths, weaknesses, threats, and opportunities?

/Emil

#Firstpost