Numbers Don't Add Up on Rental Property

[Joe Benyi]

After reading through BP's "How to Invest in Real Estate" I decided to run the numbers on purchasing a rental. In fact, it's the townhome I rent right now in the Rice Military area. However the numbers just don't add up for me. What's off with my analysis? I figured a townhome in the Rice Military area would be a decent investment property. 

2 bed, 2 bath townhome. Zestimate of 313K. Let's say we end up with a Purchase Price of 290K with no significant repairs. 

Some assumptions: 20% down, 2.8% Interest Rate, 2.4% tax rate

Monthly Analysis: 

Other tenant and I currently rent for $2150

Mortgage + Taxes: (20% down, 2.8% interest rate, 2.4% tax rate): $1672

Home Insurance: $140

HOA: $115

This takes total expenses to $1927 leaving $223 profit. Of course, this still doesn't include setting aside monthly funds for maintenance, general repairs, and possible vacancies which would eliminate your profit quickly and you'd be in the negative. 

Am I looking at the wrong type of home? Should I look in a different price range (higher, lower), more bedrooms?

Any advice is welcome, and thanks in advance for helping this rookie out. 

[Mike Dymski]

Profit in real estate comes from monthly cash flow, debt paydown, and appreciation...need all three in your deal analysis.