New York real estate help

[Enrique P.]

Hi all - I'm originally from North NJ, have been working and living in San Francisco for the past 3 years. My wife and I are both 30 and work in tech - we've seen falling prices in New York due to COVID, we're casually looking and considering moving back east. It would be our first home, and we're especially interested in Manhattan (Hell's Kitchen, Midtown, anywhere downtown), and Brooklyn (Williamsburg). It's a bit difficult to get our finger on the pulse from the west coast - is the "ny exodus" overblown? Can anyone point me toward resources about the area? 

[Jason Lee]

Yes, exodus is overblown and prices falling depends on the price point and type of apartment you’re looking for.

[Joshua Nowell]

@Enrique P. Hello. I am from New York and still looking through the Bronx for my first prop investment so I don’t think I’ll be much help. But since no one has responded I figure this will be better than nothing. Haha

In my experience searching, it seems the news was overblown. A lot of people seem to be holding and since the shortage I’ve noticed prices go way up and people demanding a lot more for something not particularly worth the value. I’ve actually taken to driving for dollars recently to change my approach. But I recommend you check out the big sites like Zillow, Redfin, realtor or any of those pre foreclosure auction sites to get a better idea of what I mean for this area. Props are still on the market but as everyone always says just run your numbers so you can match your goals.

Good Luck! I wish you the best this year Enrique and hope you find what your looking for!

[Lewis Tse]

Yes, there is undeniable outbound migration, but "exodus" is an exaggeration. Beyond this point, however, I do not have any experience in the areas you mentioned. I'm looking for properties in Uptown and Upper Manhattan, but check auction.com, Streeteasy, Zillow, etc. After enough weekly and daily searches, you'll have a better idea of how the market moves in your targetted areas. All the best with your decision! 

[Ahmed Saad]

Hi @Enrique P.,

What specifically are you looking for? You can find a "deal" if you're looking to rent in Manhattan or buy a luxury condo.

Generally speaking, those who are here are looking for 'more for less.' More space, similar or less money. For example someone who was paying $2500-$3000 for a 1 bedroom in Manhattan is now renting a floor-thru apartment in Brooklyn or Queens with backyard access.

If you have the mind to buy something for the long run, now is a great time because rates are so low although finding tenants is not as easy as it used to be. 

[Brandon Cohen]

Agreed with the sentiments above.  You’ll have an easier time finding a “deal” on a rental but overall the market has picked up.  I’ve been in a few scenarios with buyers in the last couple of weeks where there has been multiple offers.  Rates sub 3% are certainly a cause of that.  

[Nick Rutkowski]

@Enrique P.

@Enrique P.

The NY landlord exodus is real. At least in Upstate. But more for reasons like landlords are getting too old or they want to move to Florida. NYCers are moving to Upstate, fleeing the city. I’ve been running Airbnb and it’s fully booked with downstaters looking to buy house up north.

As far as moving back to NYC, sure have at it. Prices are rock bottom and you could make an equity play.

[Raphael Abreu]

Hey Enrique! I think New York in general is still pretty much a seller's market.  The extremely low interest rates, along with very low inventory are keeping prices very high.  I'm a realtor in NY and I am constantly looking at the subdivisions around my farm.  Some subdivisions have higher days on the market and have lower prices while some areas have very low days on the market and have higher prices.  It all depends what markets you're looking at.  I'm not too familiar with the market in Manhattan though. 

[Brandon Keany]

Hey Enrique, 

As everyone else has pointed out above, the 'exodus' from NYC has been oversold. If you're looking for a place in NYC or Brooklyn there are a few things you need to consider: 

First: Establish a price point (very standard) The reason I say this is because in NYC you're going to be dealing primarily with Condos or Co-ops, this means you're going to be dealing with HOA's or other boards, and they will take a lot of time for interviews and reviewing your paperwork. So you want to save time for yourself and cross of anything thats going to waste your time.

 If you're looking for an apartment in the downtown area, there are a lot of owners that are making concessions (like 2 months free) for new tenants. If none of this sounds appealing then you also  could look in Brooklyn, where rates are going to follow the trends on long island. Inventory is low right now, and between this and low mortgage rates, house prices are high. 

Second: There is a lot of competition for existing inventory which has led into lots of bidding wars. So you need to make sure that if you hire a local agent to help you with your search, that they're adept at negotiations and know how to handle all of the above. 

Third: reading the above might make some apprehensive and nervous about looking into the market but there are deals to be found in any market and this one is no exception, it's just good to operate with clarity about what's going on so that you can act accordingly. 

Hope this helped a little bit. 

Best regards, 

Brandon Keany

[Rene Van Wonderen]

As a 10 year NYC resident and 4 year home owner in Brooklyn (Bedstuy) - I have seen that prices in Brooklyn are at all time high, neighbors on both sides of me have sold in the last few months and set near records for our block. What I see is people are jumping one step further from where they currently are - Manhattan is moving to Brooklyn, people who were in Brooklyn are jumping one step further away - all to get more space during covid than they are currently used to. Because of this I've seen a little drop in Manhattan. But totally agree with other posters, NY exodus is overblown, and won't last too long - just my 2c.

[Drew Donovan]

Agreed with the sentiments that the mass exodus is overstated. The pandemic has changed the need to be in the city every day but most of the high paying jobs will have people coming in to the office more often once it is safe to do so. With that said, the new development condo market has taken a hit and will take years to recover. Prior to the pandemic, building permits were at an all-time high and new development inventory supply far outpaced it's demand. Now is not a bad time to buy but I anticipate it will continue to be a buyers market for 12-24 months before the cycle picks back up. 

With all that said, do not think of these condo units as investments; virtually none of them would pencil out if you were purchasing as a landlord. Even with the decreased values, if you rented them there would be negative cash flow and it'd be a speculative appreciation play. Feel free to contact me if you have any other questions as our company manages properties throughout Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens and have the pulse on the rental and sales market that you are interested in.

Drew Donovan