California Tax Deed Sale Ends Tuesday... New to Tax Deeds..

[Robert Sorrels]

I am a paddle holder in the Riverside County, CA Tax Deed Auction currently being held online. I researched the 650+ properties and reduced my list down to about 20 properties which have a home on them and I felt were the best opportunities and locations. I drove to see the properties and scratched about 1/2 of them because google maps can only tell you so much about the condition and neighborhood; of the remaining 10 or so all but three were withdrawn or cancelled prior to or during the first couple days of the bidding process. The three that are left are all now bidding at north of $200,000 so I am merely a spectator on those now. I went back through the properties and have found two properties that may work for me, but definitely weren't my first options either. One is currently bidding at the top of my cash on hand (around 100k), but I have a heloc that is already approved on my home which I could use to rehab, maybe 50k with holding costs? With a decent rehab it could sell for somewhere in the mid 200's, but all my eggs are in one basket, and this is my first auction....and flip...  The other is a small 2 bed 1 bath 800 sq ft. in a 55+ community. It needs some work but I may be able to pick up for around 30-40k. rehab for 15k?  and sell for somewhere around 100.

My question is how should I figure out my rehab costs on a home I can't enter?, or is there a calculation that anyone uses to figure out their high bid amount on a tax deed auction? I just ran the 70% calculator on BP...  Should I just sit this auction out? I'd hate to miss an opportunity this close to home...