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Updated over 3 years ago on . Most recent reply

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18
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6
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Kayla Johnson
  • Owensboro, KY
6
Votes |
18
Posts

Is this a good BRRRR or am I just excited?

Kayla Johnson
  • Owensboro, KY
Posted

I need to be talked down. I’m convincing myself that this is a good deal before I really know what I’m doing and what to consider. I know this is not a proper analysis, I’m working on that. My market is western Kentucky, so the numbers are all relatively low in comparison to what most of you are accustomed to.

My husband and I are looking to buy our first property in the next few months and BRRRR it. I'm only halfway through the BRRRR book and haven't even started The Book on Estimating Rehab Costs (it will be here this week!)

We found a falling apart property in a low income area, probably a C- neighborhood. The basement wall has crumbled on one side, the support posts have fallen off the porch and it is currently condemned due to structural damage. The current owner has it FSBO for $30k obo. It's been empty for months. Seller is elderly, was selling to previous tenants on contract when the structural damage occurred and they left after not paying her for over a year.

She’s gotten one bid for the structural repairs at $25-$30k, the AC components have been stolen, the inside is in bad shape. Previous tenants apparently had large dogs and no inclination to clean. It looks like there is a plywood floor in the kitchen area, but we haven’t been inside yet, just peaked in the back window and talked to chatty neighbors.

Now, this is where I need the talking down.. I just about have myself convinced that there’s very little chance this isn’t worth buying and fixing for cash flow and here’s why. I think the seller would be likely to finance (she was selling to tenants on contract), and take a much lower price than $30k, say $18k, then the high end of the bid she received for the structural repairs, $30k, and another $20k in rehab would put us all in at $68k. This is a 4BA, 1BA, built around 1900, I believe. An updated 3/2 several blocks down built around the same time sold for $126k not too long ago. I’d hope to get at least $100k on the appraisal and pull out 75% on a cash out refi, leaving me with a $75k mortgage, escrowed payment likely under/around $700. Section 8 voucher for a 4 bedroom in my area is $1041/mo.

Tell me why this won’t work. Please. I need to pull back but I can’t talk myself out of it because I want it!

Most Popular Reply

User Stats

446
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411
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Ryan Howell
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Hendersonville, NC
411
Votes |
446
Posts
Ryan Howell
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Hendersonville, NC
Replied

My answer is..."it depends".  You need to really understand the structural damage.  I would get an engineer to look at it.  If the numbers are correct, it could be a good deal.  Personally, I like lighter rehabs where I keep my rehab costs as ~<20-25% of the purchase price.  I don't see this talked about a lot, but if I buy a $100k property that needs $20k and I'm off on my estimate my 50% than I can generally be fine at $130k "all in" instead of $120k.  If I buy a property for $30k that needs $100k and I'm off 50%, I'm in trouble.  My point is that there are always unknowns and even more unknowns on your first one.  One way to limit your risk is to limit the scope of your rehabs.  I also look at a "sensitivity study" on my assumptions.  If my rents are off x% what happens?  What about if my rehab is off x%?  What about expenses, vacancy, etc?  Nothing will ever go quite as planned and your deal needs to protect for some contingencies.

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