Help! Determining ARV when there's no other remodeled comps

[Karen Margrave]

We're new to doing rehab/flips, with our experience being in new spec construction. We are now in Oregon, and have a house in escrow that is located in Sunriver Village, which is a very popular area for those wanting 2nd homes, and especially for Vacation Rentals - Short term rentals. The HOA include swimming pool, a big waterpark feature, river access, and in winter a tubing hill, etc. The commercial are is The Village at Sunriver which has features for kids to play, shops, grocery store, etc. Sunriver is approximately 20 minutes south of Bend, Oregon. The area is a recreation mecca in the spring and summer.

The problem.  All of the homes that are being sold were built in the 70-80s, and are in need of being remodeled, as is the one we're buying. Most of the buyers are people purchasing to use as Vacation Rentals or 2nd homes, and either remodel for their personal use not putting back on market, or keep "as is" for a vacation rental.

In looking at photos, all of the homes are dark, outdated, and worn. Personally I think there would be buyers that would prefer a more modern/rustic style with new kitchen and bath, etc. How do you make the case for ARV in such a market, and determine what makes sense as far as remodeling?

@Jay Hinrichs  (I know you know the area)   

Others?