First potential flip! Deal or no deal?

[Nicole Almond]

I've heard that starting your realestate adventure with a house needing a complete renovation wasn't very ideal. With the numbers, however, I am somewhat interested in giving it a go.

The house was built in the 1960's in Alexander Arkansas ( I'm aware that there may be asbestos and lead paint issues). The property it'self isn't in too terribly bad of condition. It does need a new roof, ( one with an arch as the one it has is flat.) It also needs all new appliances and a completely new bathroom installed, but the floors, however, are hardwood and look fantastic. 

The price they're wanting is 59,500. The ARV is about 120K-130k. With the 70% rule of thumb, I have: 120K * .70= 84K ( minus repairs which I, off the top of my head and with, hopefully, much padding have at $40k) = $44,000 for maximum price.

Then we have the fixed costs, about 15%, which is about $6,600.  That would put the profit at: $29,400.

Question: Does that all sound right? Am I missing anything?

Any other rule of thumbs would be much appreciated! Thank you!