Price Ratios between distressed and retail sales

[Fausto Carosella]

Hey guys,

I've been searching around and haven't quite found an answer to this specific question: How can I find the price ratios between distressed and retail sales in my potential farm area (one zip code for now) without going through an agent.... if that's even possible?? Also is there a way to tell how many retail sales are expiring, getting leased out as opposed to being sold, or foreclosed on because they can't sell? Again, I know the simple answer is talk to an agent, which I'm sure I ultimately will, but I'd like to know if there are ways I can go about doing it myself. I'm inclined to needing the answers at 1:00 am when I can't turn my brain off :-/   I was able to determine the supply of real estate through Realtor.com by simply searching the recently sold and the currently listed. Any other factors in determining if my potential farm area is a viable one seem to be qualitative, so I'm sure I can dig that info up easier. Any suggestions would be great! Thanks!!

[Bill Gulley]

Yes, by "public side" I mean the data and functions available to the public. Begin with the MLS Home Page instead of search functions to look at properties and that may lead you to general trends.

Well, I'm not agreeing with that analysis or assessment of rehabbed vs. leased or other sales.

Identifying such classes may be possible, but, go back to basic statistics, sample size and deviation, degrees of certainty and of like units.

I think J. Scott, the author I believe, was from the Atlanta area, now in the D.C. area (I think), I believe I followed him off to some other large metro area over the years as well. Anyway, the size of a market, population of a million plus certainly impacts the sample size to allow analysis, Ft. Myers and Springfield, Mo. are nowhere near these sample sizes. Next, a 100 K distressed sale has nothing to do with 200K home sales, unless they are comparable, RE is unique from many vantage points, size, location, quality, materials, age, condition and so on.

Next, if all or most of the distressed properties were sold, why is that, why were they distressed, condition or foreclosure or did a clan of bad housekeepers leave a small town? Past sales indicate past inventories, not current inventories which is what you'd be working with. In markets like ours, you could have 4 subdivisions with 200K homes, new construction that could be selling like hot cakes that will skew that perception, you rehabbed 1982 ranch may or may not compete, and usually won't even if you sunk 100K in it.

The objective measures to valuation, market activity, inventor supplies and housing needs have been around about a hundred years, technology hasn't and won't change the approach but can make things easier. That's saying that one's opinion as to how to evaluate a market that is unconventional or based on assumption will be just that, opinion and opinions are not objective, they will be subjective. What forms opinions will be based on our experiences and other factors, but where those experiences were gained will certainly influence us. Stick to the proven, accepted, customary inventory approach banded in smaller price ranges by area.

I've not read the book, but jumping from 100 to 200 isn't going to be statistically valid as a population for analysis, that is too far apart in any market.

I suggest you concentrate on the goals at hand, learning the basics, local methods and markets and getting past that examination. On the "agent's side" of the MLS you'll have more than enough analysis tools available to sliver your market and dice out what you might be interested in. Good luck! :)