How are you analyzing Fix and Flips in 2025 (Mines Not Working)

[Jamie Parker]

Hello Everyone,

I hope that everyone is off to the races to start in off the year. I have come to the realization that my calculations are not as solid at I once thought. Since 2021-2022 and the surge in prices in basically all markets across the country, how are fix and flippers evaluating properties. Particularly Nashville. The properties I am targeting are thought of for infill development first, but when those numbers don't work rehab second. I am finding that my offers are not in the ballpark of what sellers are expecting. Being on the nose is an anomaly, but it seems that my estimations are really far off.

What I was using was 70% ARV - repairs with a repair estimate . Wholesaled a deal in September that didn't hit that number. I understand that the price is what someone is willing to pay. 8 Years ago these numbers worked, but today, I have reason to believe these numbers do not work anymore.

Links to 2 properties in Nashville and 1 in Memphis using the same approximations. Was told that the offer wasn't close, or we were not in the same stadium. If what I am facing is Seller's expectation of market condition, i understand. IF my numbers are truely "too low" I just looking gain confidence in how I am analyzing properties and estimating repairs.  

1710 10TH AVE N, 37208: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B0CoSbGxQFbRBVzXBERw...

6121 Southampton Dr 38119: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a3WBEcgv2SMggu5P2HrK...

2014 Salem Mason Dr, 27208: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jzr5TN9PYhuiFuD2THLb...

Spoke with a seller yesterday, before I go with these numbers I thought it best to ask for some guidance. 

Any advice will be greatly appreciated.