STR Recommendations for max profit ~$300K, Disney area

[David Sanders]

I'm out of state, and largely unfamiliar with the disney area other than my family vacations and limited research. I'm looking to buy a family vacation property, but also make money on it. I've seen similar posts in the past, but they seem to all be around 2 years ago when the market was very different. I'm looking for a 3-4 BR property in the $300K range, maybe up to $350K. This will be a long term investment, so I'm looking for the best return long term, while hopefully generating enough cash flow to more than cover all related expenses and mortgage (figure 20% down). Couple specific questions:

1) condo/townhouse with HOA vs SFH with pool and no HOA? There's a lot of competition for both, so we would likely theme it and modernize it. But is one more profitable than the other? I see quite a few HOA fees in the $700-$1K/month range.

2) Any specific area recommendations? I see some nice houses with pools in my price range in the Poinciana area, but also seen some comments that this is a sketchy area? I would like to narrow my search down to a couple areas then visit these places in person. Other than General proximity to the theme parks, I'm not sure how much a specific location matters for prospective STR's?

I will be using a management company to handle everything (18-20% fee, correct?). The basic stats I got from my Realtor were STR's in the area for what I'm looking for typically generate about 65% occupancy (as a yearly average) and daily rates vary between $140-$180/night. Which works out to roughly $3K per month. Does that sound about right?

[Ryan Moyer]

I agree with Shawn.  I manage a handful in the area and at current prices/rates I would not expect to cash flow most months, even with extra marketing, especially if you're paying a manager.  If you want feel free to PM me and I can give you some numbers on how the homes we manage have been performing over the last few months/year and you can plug it in to see how it would work with your underwriting.

To cash flow right now in this market you really need to be theming, imo.  And even then returns can still be tight depending on how good the theming is.

The instant fast cash flow was fun while it lasted, but we're moving into a more typical real estate cycle right now in this market where success is going to be determined by those with patience, looking at it as more of a long-term investment (as real estate has historically been).