Interesting Article - Wanted to get your thoughts

[Mike Olson]

Hi all - 

We here in Denver are used to hearing statistics about how many people are constantly moving here (and seeing the effects of that) but this was the first one that I'd seen that quoted a statistic about how many people are leaving the area as well. Wanted to see what your thoughts are on this. I know that one statistic or article never encompasses the whole picture but thought this was interesting nonetheless -

http://www.5280.com/dwell/real-estate/digital/2016...

I have personally seen clients leave the area in the last year but those had more to do with moving back closer to family to get help with the kids than it did with the fact that they could buy a huge house back in the Midwest for what we sold their home for here. I've continued to have new clients moving here on a consistent basis and they seem to fit the mold of people making wages in the higher end who can actually afford to buy something here. What have you all been seeing?

Thanks!

[Bill S.]

@Mike Olson so here are my thoughts. 

1) The percentage of people moving here is 9.44% and the percentage leaving is 9.25% leaving an apparent paltry 0.19% difference. That seems very small. Let's break it down. The Denver metro population is roughly 3,000,000. That means our annual NET influx is 5,700 according to this article. This flies in the face of US Census data according to the following chart.

2) Your article does not cover population growth from the fact that more people are being born here than are dying. The figures I have seen estimates this around 20,000 per year. This maybe a bit high. According to this data, Denver County sees about 3,600 more births than deaths per year (this extrapolates to about 15,000 more births than deaths per year for the whole metro area). The census chart above would include this "native growth" from birth/death difference. The chart shows Denver growing by slightly less than 60,000 people between July 2014 and July 2015. There appears to be some discrepancy between the Abodo numbers in your article and the US Census data. Not sure if they are apples to apples or not. I'm guessing the Abodo is a thinner slice of the picture since they are focusing apartments. 

3) At any rate this type of data is important and should be monitored for impacts to projected rents and vacancy rates.

Thanks for sharing.