Are the GREAT Deals Gone?

[Don Konipol]

Are the great deals gone?

Through the years I've been seeing less and less "great" purchases, and more and more deals to be had at "market" pricing. Currently, we are at 12.75% interest with 3 - 5 points on the loan origination end; we haven't been able to locate any existing mortgage notes we can buy of similar quality with ROI even equal to that. We have in the past purchased notes in default, but this represents a different risk profile.
On the equity end we haven’t purchased a property in the last 2 years.  Previously, we were able to obtain a 10 cap without undue risk (about 5 years ago); the. 3 or 4 years ago we were able to purchase at 7-8 cap and “juice” returns by borrowing 50% at 4% fixed 20 year financing.  Now, with borrowing at 6% +, the equity investments just don’t seem to make sense.

More telling, perhaps, is that my usual sources of deal flow have not been able to come up with those one off GREAT deals we used to get once or thrice a year.  Oh, some of our sources THINK they’ve located those deals, but closer examination either uncovers higher risk, undisclosed negative information, or outright fraud.  I’ve expanded my sources of leads, but that’s a longer term project as when we establish new sources we become swamped with submissions of deals bearing no relation to our published criteria; at risk levels a river boat gambler wouldn’t touch, or flat out the source just shotgunning whatever crap comes across his desk, without even reading the documentation.  

I’m a believer in “adding value” to the investment.  On the equity side by increasing net income and or decreasing risk, on the debt side by “working” the note.  Profitability can also be enhanced on a sale (sometimes) if we choose to provide owner financing or wrap financing.  Right now I don’t see any equity deals approaching a 12 cap without undo risk.  What I see is plenty offered in the 6-8 cap arena, and a lot of high vacancy properties with negative cash flow.

Wondering what other investors are seeing? 

[Shafi Noss]

Gmail was only created 20 years ago and Zillow 18. Technology creates more efficient markets and I suspect that has shifted the business more towards using technology and marketing to hit singles consistently rather than home runs.