BIg picture views of NC housing

[Chris Martin]

If it seems to you like prices in NC just keep going up... then you are observant. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (St Louis FED) maintains vast quantities of economic data, including housing data. The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) query system provides a good graph-based user interface for viewing and understanding the data. The charts below show the Raleigh area MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) general home price index over different time frames. I included the URLs in the images in case you want to see the charts yourself, but a better option is to load the charts directly using this URL: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/30823

The graph above shows what we already know: home process have rebounded for the past 6 years or so since the fallout of the GR (great recession.) The chart represents year over year (Y/Y) percentage change, and the run since 2013 has been impressive. The next chart shows the price index charted out since 1995 with the saucer dip being the result of the GR.

The next chart sums up why I call, and have called for the past decade or so, the Raleigh/Charlotte/Wilmington/Asheville markets the "Big 4". I added Burlington mainly to contrast a smaller market against the long term price performance in terms of the Big 4.  

All of the Big 4 exhibit solid price performance that outpaces inflation. $100 in 1995 is worth $166 now using a cost of living calculator. Each NC MSA has its investing pros and cons. If you invested after the GR falloff then your returns, in general, should outpace inflation in most NC markets. 

[Jason E. Smith]

Great observations Chris! I'd be curious to see population growth, job growth, wage growth, etc. overlaid on top of this data. The term "bubble" gets thrown around but I heard a solid explanation of bubble recently. If the housing price in Raleigh is growing at a rate of say 5%, yet all the contributing indicators such as wage growth, population growth, income growth, etc is growing at say 2%, then it creates a bubble. Obviously if the underlying data isn’t growing as quickly then it’s not sustainable long term. And typically speaking the correction back to equilibrium doesn’t result in a soft landing, rather an over correction which results in cycles. Thanks for the great data!