BP New Member Ricky Segarra

[Ricky Segarra]

BP Nation! Thank You all for welcoming me into the world of BiggerPockets and its relationship growing abilities! I have been a complete addict and listening to every single podcast I could possibly find time for and thought it was about time that I joined the ever so fast growing BP Nation. My name Is Ricky Segarra and I am a young hungry real estate entrepreneur who loves nothing more than real estate. I joined BP to learn from others, give advice in my areas of expertise and also to network in hopes of forming relationships with a win win scenario. I live in Colorado and do investing through out the state and have a dream to building a business that works with my lifestyle. I want to have my hands on anything I can get them on. I want to invest outside of Colorado and form relationships all over the United State. Feel free to drop in a comment and say hi! I'd love to chat with anyone that finds an interest in my portfolio. Lets grow together and help each other out!     

[Jerry W.]

@Ricky Segarra, first Wyoming has both oil and coal.  We are number on in the nation on coal and quite high on oil and gas.  The biggest spot for coal in Wyoming is Gillette.  The town of Gillette has seen over 1,000 job losses in the last year and will probably get more.  The largest producer has filed for bankruptcy, and next biggest is fighting to avoid it.  Making it virtually illegal to use coal to fire a power plant has killed the number one consumer of coal.  No coal plants can be built that will meet the EPAs air regulations.  The existing plants were under a deadline to comply and only a lawsuit has temporarily stalled the changes that were filed by the states.  The executive branch controls the EPA and they are doing by regulation what they could not do by legislation.  Wyoming has had good and bad years in both oil and gas and coal production, but never both at the same time.  This is the third really bad bust I have seen, and I would guess it will be 2 to 5 years before the worst is over and we start to recover.  Areas that rely heavily on coal or oil are hardest hit.  Gillette, Douglas, Casper, and many other spots are going to take a beating.  Areas like Cheyenne and Laramie will not be affected as much as their main employers are university, college students, Cheyenne has quite a large amount of diversity, like manufacturing and tech industries.

  Areas like Gillette and Casper not only lose jobs in coal and oil, they also lose jobs to the businesses who rely on those companies for business.  Businesses like drilling pipe sales, parts runners, casing for drill holes, cementers and finishers like Haliburton, Baker, Schlumber J.  Pipe inspectors, directional drilling tools, mud companies, trucking companies who move rigs, cable suppliers, motor parts, machine shops, tire sales, the list goes on and on.  Now throw in the things like clothing stores, car sales, sporting goods, restaurants, grocery stores, hardware stores, etc and you have a vicious cycle of decline and contraction on a micro economic level.  You may have 3 or 4 times as many people lose jobs or take pay cuts as compared to the main industry.  New construction will falter then stop.  Many folks will move after unemployment runs out and schools will lose students and teacher jobs will be lost.  

    Even folks who do not lose their jobs may get pay cuts and overtime will stop.  If a dollar cycles 8 or 10 times through the local economy, the loss will be magnified 8 or 10 times when it dries up.  Cheyenne will still be hurt but not like oil or coal areas.  The drop in state spending will hurt it a little, but the whole state will feel the hurt from loss of highway projects and other state spending from SLIB money projects.

    While gas is cheap demand usually grows, and if new production is halted eventually the scales will tip and prices will rise again.  This takes awhile.  War in the Middle East that disrupts production of oil may have a large impact.  Other parts of the country may get a boost from low energy prices.  Manufacturing companies often benefit from low energy prices.  A change in the party who holds the Presidency could really effect coal prices.  Rock Springs will get hits in railroad and coal, but trona production may increase.

    The university will lose some state funding, but the overall demand for education will not drop significantly.  Areas like Rawlins will get a hit to oil and gas jobs, but the windmill electricity generator projects will help offset that.

    I hope this helps.