Newbie from San Francisco interested in Dallas / Fort Worth

[Griffin D.]

Hi there!

My name is Griffin, and I'm looking to purchase my first real estate investment property in the next year. I'm most interested in long term buy and hold (5 to 20 years) - either single family or small multifamily (1 to 4 units).

I've done research on various markets and am particularly interested in the Dallas / Fort Worth area. I like that it has a strong economy in multiple industries, low unemployment, and great population / job growth. I also have family in the area, and it'll be easy to get a direct flight there to explore and learn the area. I'm planning to either use a turnkey company or work with a recommended real estate agent / property manager from a friend who has invested there.

Are there any other Bay Area investors on here who have experience investing in the Dallas / Fort Worth (DFW) area? I'd love to chat / grab coffee to hear your thoughts. Any tips, numbers you expect (aka cash flow, cap rate, etc.), favorite vendors, and recommended neighborhoods would be greatly appreciated!

Griffin

[Griffin D.]

@Ali Boone Thanks for the advice! I was curious and did a deeper analysis on the "stability" of a few US markets based on the appreciation rates shown at LittleBigHomes.com. Looking at start dates from 1984 to 1999, I mapped out what the appreciation (using CAGR) would be over a 15 year period. Aka - for 1984, I looked at the period from 1984 to 1998 and for 1990, I looked at the period from 1990 to 2004. And so on. Then, for all of those 15 year periods in each city, I looked at minimum, median, and maximum - aka, if you picked the worst / median / best year to invest, what would your 15 year appreciation be?

The results reflect the thoughts that both you and @Account Closed have posted here:

• San Francisco has incredible returns. Worst 15 year appreciation is 5.5%, median is 6.6%, best is 8.0%. Even in the worst 15 year period, you're doing better than most US markets.
• Philadelphia, Birmingham, Chicago, and Kansas City are all relatively stable. Worst 15 year appreciation around 2%, medians are all ~ 4-5%, best case scenarios are all around 5.5%.
• Las Vegas is the opposite of stable. Worst case scenario, your property *loses* value over 15 years, best case scenario is 6.7%. Better hope you strike it right or hold longer than 15 years!
• It turns out that the Texas markets haven't had a great run with long term appreciation. Dallas ranges from 1.3% to 3.4% appreciation. Maybe this will turn given recent history, maybe not.
• Other markets with impressive long term appreciation: Seattle, Salt Lake City, Denver.
• And markets with stable appreciation: Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Providence, Boise.

Couple caveats: Just because a market has appreciated consistently in the past, doesn't guarantee it'll continue to do so. And this analysis does not look at cash flow, which obviously should be considered.

Griffin