Should I believe AirDNA?

[Torey Chumbley]

I am new to the STR game and looking into buying my first one. I have been doing a ton of research and have used some of the free tools on airdna to help me decide where to invest. I found a property in North Lake Tahoe that looks good but I am not sure if I should trust the numbers I get from airdna. The cabin is a 3/2 that should sleep 8-10. It is listed on the MLS for 699,000. According to Airdna it should rent for 473 per night with 40% occupancy for over 68,000 per year. If these numbers are close to true, this looks like a good investment. What do you all think? Do you trust their numbers, or do you use another source to estimate your ROI?