How to reliably estimate occupancy rate for vacation rentals

[Jeff Dzado]

The short version, with direct questions: I've started analyzing vacation STRs in different areas of Washington state. My efforts are primarily focused in areas near the Hood Canal. I'm really struggling to come up with reasonable occupancy rates as inputs to my spreadsheet models. What data sources can I trust so I can more reliably narrow down my criteria and underwrite a deal? How can I learn what variables are important (Is it views? Is it a specific location name? Is it purely marketing prowess?)? How do you underwrite your first vacation STR with so many unknowns?

The long version w/confusing information and a small bit of rambling/trying to process:
I spoke with a STR company, and they suggest some parts of the area, a 1 bed/1 bath cabin: Situation A, have 15% occupancy off-peak, and 50-70% occupancy during a 4 month peak. A realtor I met with (not too familiar with STRs) sold a property recently in Situation A which had revenue which lines up nearly exactly with this occupancy rate. I recently stayed at a slightly different 1 bed property which is ~30 minutes from the area and closer to 'normal' civilization, Situation B, (with amazing views), and the owner said he has a 6 month peak of 100% occupancy and 50% occupancy the rest of the year.

I've looked at AirDNA, which I've recently learned about, and the free views claim that that rentals in Situation A have 50%+ occupancy rate, resulting in nearly 2x the revenue I would expect from from the information from the management company in the area. 

One piece of information says a $150k property won't cash flow. Another says that I can pay $300k+ for the same property. And if I can learn the variables from Situation B that result in their high occupancy, can I apply them to Situation A and pay $450k+? 

[Avery Carl]

@Jeff Dzado that’s the problem. It’s probably best to keep investments and vacations separate. But if your goal is just to make enough for it to pay for itself when you aren’t using it, it might be possible.