Should I do this Nashville Deal?

[Kyle Seidel]

I'm going to Nashville next week and am hoping to buy a short term vaca rental condo that Turnkey will manage (18% commission). It's called Alloy and is located at 374 Herron Dr. which is 3-4 miles south of both Music Row and DT. Purchase price is $370k and I'm conservatively estimating a $2,250/mo mortgage payment which includes everything. It's a new construction 2 bed 2 bath 1,300 sq ft and looks really nice. Nashville is getting a MLS team and they'll play 1 mile away starting next year. This is also conservative but I'm assuming my break-even will be $3,500/mo revenue. I should keep about 75% of every dollar after that. I've had multiple ppl within Turnkey say their minimum they'll take on is $2,500/mo. Any Pro Forma income statement I've seen seems outrageously high ($8k/mo revenue). Is it reasonable for me starting in 2020 (since 2019 I want to price it very aggressive to get ppl in and get good reviews generated) to get $4k/mo revenue and make $350ish/mo profit? I'd like some thoughts because needing $3,500/mo revenue just to break even is very intimidating, however, in a few years I could also be making so much above $3,500/mo in revenue that I'm kicking myself. What's a reasonable average revenue to expect monthly?

Feel free to chime in your thoughts and I’d love to hear all your numbers if you have a short term vaca rental in Nashville- thanks!