Estimating vacation rentals revenue during an economic downturn

[Ryan Thomas]

I currently use airdna to estimate revenue on potential short term rental properties. Obviously this data is based on the current economic conditions.

Does anyone have a rough ball park proxy to discount the ADR and Occupancy for an economic downturn. I am using 50% reduction in the current ADR and Occupancy as a worst case scenario but hoping for advice from someone who owned vacation rentals during hard times.  For reference I am looking in the smokey mountains- Gatlinberg, Pigeon Forge, Byrson City, Boone type areas.