How to forecast expenses and profitability for an STR

[Alexander Stek]

Hi all! This is my first post here. I'm excited to learn more about real estate investing :)

I'm starting the search for my first STR and was hoping for some advice on my ballpark expense estimates to determine a property's break-even point. I used figures from https://www.buildyourbnb.com/blog-post/how-to-properly-forec... for a 4 bedroom home; self-managed. I'm aware that expenses can vary significantly by market, but wanted a starting place to be able to quickly evaluate profitability against AirDNA projections.

Experienced investors, how do you calculate profitability for an STR after expenses? Are my ballpark estimates reasonable? Are there better tools out there?

Followup. If the numbers are right, it seems like lower-priced homes that meaningfully cash-flow are rare. I want a return on time I invest self-managing. Since many expenses are fixed, should I be looking at higher-end properties? 

[Michael Baum]

Ok so numbers are numbers. All of those are somewhat meaningless without a house. It is all going to be dependent on the place and location.

The 500k place could be a better bet if it could gross 100k+ in an area vs the 250k place that might only pull 25 or 30k.