Modeling Future Occupancy and Rates for STRs

[Kyle A.]

I typically work in the commercial multifamily space using the LTR approach, but currently broadening scope into smaller multis, potentially using the STR approach. Those of you that have experience modeling out pro formas for STR's, what's the best way to project occupancy and rate variability throughout the year? I'm looking in areas that experience all the seasons, so I need to take into account the drastic income fluctuations throughout the year.

I've checked out tools like AirDNA, but not sure how accurate that is, and also looking into contacting super hosts or someone who specializes in STR acquisitions. Please let me know if you fit into one of those categories or if you have any other feedback regarding this, I'd love to chat.