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All Forum Posts by: Kyle A.

Kyle A. has started 10 posts and replied 44 times.

Post: Modeling Future Occupancy and Rates for STRs

Kyle A.Posted
  • Investor
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Posts 47
  • Votes 23
Quote from @Michael Baum:

I just want to say that AirDNA "CAN" be accurate but not always. It really depends on the area you run it.

The more relevant data that goes in the better the results will be. I have found it to be less accurate overall for the areas that I am looking. Mainly because I look where the road is less traveled.

Also, if you are trying to get the accuracy you get from a LTR, it isn't going to happen. The answer is simple, people always need a place to live but they don't always need a place to vacation.

During the pandemic, most of us saw a pretty decent uptick in occupancy. Some areas saw a 30% increase. Those numbers have proved to be unsustainable for the most part and many folks who bought during the pandemic for record high prices are struggling at best and trying to get out from under poor performing properties.

Some areas had zero revenue to to lockdowns and bans on stays.

STRs can be unpredictable in their revenue so you will have to change your LTR mindset to adjust for the differences.


Right, I can definitely tell there's much higher unpredictability than LTR's. Just trying to wrap my head around different ways to value these types of properties. I usually look at the income a property is currently producing and calculate its future potential based on market data...but it's difficult taking a property that hasn't been used as an STR, and trying to source metrics that aren't consistent or readily available.

Post: Modeling Future Occupancy and Rates for STRs

Kyle A.Posted
  • Investor
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Posts 47
  • Votes 23
Quote from @Brian Barch:

I like to triangulate several sources: airdna, awning, rabbu, enemy method, talking to local realtors, PMs, etc. if you do so, I think it’s fairly easy to understand what your typical seasonality is. From there, you want to come up with a high/low range, then determine if you could live with the low end of that range.

determining occupancy can be mildly fruitless, as you can essentially “buy” occupancy with a low enough rate. What you really care about is total revenue. Shooting for 15% annually of total purchase price is a good goal to shoot for.


 Ok great, these are good notes. Thank you!

Post: Modeling Future Occupancy and Rates for STRs

Kyle A.Posted
  • Investor
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Posts 47
  • Votes 23
Quote from @Alex Scattareggia:
Quote from @Kyle A.:

I typically work in the commercial multifamily space using the LTR approach, but currently broadening scope into smaller multis, potentially using the STR approach.

You are coming from a market segment that is much more hard data specific and looking to apply the same approach.  It will be helpful if you can get your hands on reliable numbers, but that will be your annoyance in this space.

To answer your initial question, I would get as many data points as possible from all of the above listed sources for revenue.  Average them out and give yourself a 10% margin of error because of the unreliability in the inputs.  We have been throwing out March 2020- January 2022 when running analyses recently because it has the potential to skew the whole data set for obvious reasons.  

The part that you can have more certainty on is the expense side, where you can get real #´s on utilities, turnover etc. As others have alluded to above, there is a bit more art and a bit less science in the STR vs CMF market. You are dealing with the whims of individual travelers over a long period of time vs one renter pool once every few years. The value-add stuff is actually pretty easy if you can narrow down the things that really drive business which with your background I am sure you will be able to do.

Cheers and good luck.

Thank you, this is helpful

Post: Multifamily Refinance/Consolidation of Renovation Debt

Kyle A.Posted
  • Investor
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Posts 47
  • Votes 23
Quote from @Jake Peetz:

I am nearly complete with my first multifamily purchase and renovation. 12 unit in great area of Jacksonville, FL. I have seller financing on the purchase and funded the renovations through personal credit line that matures in 90 days. Looking for ideas on how to refinance or consolidate roughly 250k into another loan while keeping my seller financing in place on the note. If anyone has thoughts or advice I would enjoy your thoughts or experiences on what any of you have done in this situation. Thank you for your time!


Are you looking to refi into long term debt? You could try the commercial dscr route, but it's rare they'll take second position behind seller financed portion, and interest will be higher than agency debt. If seller is willing to take second position behind bank that'll increase your chances. Really depends on current valuation, how much equity you put into it, and your loan positioning. 

Post: What are some good indicators for a growing market?

Kyle A.Posted
  • Investor
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Posts 47
  • Votes 23
Quote from @Dani Murphy:

Hey @Bradley Jernigan! Here are some metrics we track to identify an investment market: 

1. Population Growth - https://www.census.gov/data/tables.html

2. Job Growth - https://www.bls.gov/

3. Median Household Income Growth - www.City-Data.com

4. Median House Value Growth - www.City-Data.com

5. Crime Index - www.City-Data.com

6. Rent Growth - https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data

7. Cap Rate - Brokers / Appraisers / PMs in your market

8. Personal Preference - Do you want to spend time there?
--
Please feel free to DM me with questions!


I second these metrics, but most of those resources have outdated info with a 1-3 year lag. CoStar, Yardi, and IRR are a few resources that have more up-to-date data. They are paid resources, but produce free quarterly reports you can download.

Post: LP's, Something to look at in the monthly reports

Kyle A.Posted
  • Investor
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Posts 47
  • Votes 23
Quote from @Mike Dymski:

There is not much that an LP can do once the transaction closes.


There's not much an LP can do for that particular investment, but performance and communication from that sponsor can influence you (or other LPs you know) on doing additional deals with them. It's important to pay attention to what's going on and how sponsor communicates it to you. 

Post: Modeling Future Occupancy and Rates for STRs

Kyle A.Posted
  • Investor
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Posts 47
  • Votes 23
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:

So, we use Airdna and it's pretty accurate! There are even several lenders that use Airdna to decide if a potential STR would be good to lend on. One of my favorite features is that I can download the last couple years' worth of whatever data I want...occupancy, annual revenue, ADR, etc..... into a spreadsheet.

Another website that is reliable for STR data is STRinsights....

Hope that helpful to you and if I can help an anyway with pro formas feel free to DM.


Ok awesome, yes this is helpful. Reaching out to lenders sounds like a potential strategy as well. 

Post: Modeling Future Occupancy and Rates for STRs

Kyle A.Posted
  • Investor
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Posts 47
  • Votes 23
Quote from @John Underwood:
Quote from @Kyle A.:
Quote from @John Underwood:
Quote from @Kyle A.:

I typically work in the commercial multifamily space using the LTR approach, but currently broadening scope into smaller multis, potentially using the STR approach. Those of you that have experience modeling out pro formas for STR's, what's the best way to project occupancy and rate variability throughout the year? I'm looking in areas that experience all the seasons, so I need to take into account the drastic income fluctuations throughout the year.

I've checked out tools like AirDNA, but not sure how accurate that is, and also looking into contacting super hosts or someone who specializes in STR acquisitions. Please let me know if you fit into one of those categories or if you have any other feedback regarding this, I'd love to chat.


 I prefer to use actual similar local comps that I can easily look at on Vrbo and Airbnb.


How are you doing occupancy projections? And when you're comping for rates, are you doing a day by day analysis for each day of the year for every comp? Or is there another way to take variability into account


 I put it in a spreadsheet so that I can look at seasonality, weekends vs weekdays, holidays, overall average etc.


This doesn't really answer my question, but maybe you can clarify....in your spreadsheet you're going day by day for the whole year and entering in all the rates of every comp you find? And how about occupancy? Unless there's a feature on airbnb/vrbo I don't know about how can you tell if units are actually being booked, and at what frequency, with the rates they're advertising?

You might be talking about tracking your current properties, but I'm mainly wondering about analyzing a new area to get an idea of future performance. 

Post: Capital Stack Alignment

Kyle A.Posted
  • Investor
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Posts 47
  • Votes 23
Quote from @Zachary Ware:

I am interested in what you all think are the biggest ways that a capital stack/ fees can align with investors and GPs. For investors, what do you like to see as and as GPs, what do your fees look like to make sure that all parties' interests are aligned? I have read that some like to go light on the acquisition fees and heavier on the refinance/disposition fee.


I'd say acquisition fee typically goes with experience of sponsor. It's justifiable if you've gone full cycle multiple times and executed or exceeded proforma projections. If you're working with newer investors and don't have as much of a track record I'd shave that off to either give LP returns a little boost, or allocate more into operational reserves.

Unfortunately preferred returns have gotten kind of mainstream, but I don't think they align the interests of investors and GPs. Many deals, especially throughout stabilization year(s), can take a lot of adjusting, sometimes not hitting y1/2 proforma numbers in order to hit long term returns projections. This can cause heavy cash flow deficits in the early years, putting pressure on GP team to catch up while essentially working for free until they reach hurdle. The pressure and cash flow deficits can put GPs in a position where they might prefer to sell and cash out early instead of putting all the focus on maximizing performance and long-term profitability. Whereas if everyone is on board to collect returns based on the actual building performance it aligns everyone a lot more harmoniously. 

Fees are also very situational. A heavy project can justify a higher asset management fee, but I still wouldn't go over 2.5%. It just has to make sense for everyone involved. You have to know the needs of your investors and your own personal needs and make sure the deal is structured so it's a win for everyone involved. Another factor to take into consideration is having in-house property management. If GP team is handling this, you could rationalize getting rid of the asset management fee, or rolling it into PM expenses. 

When it comes to the refi/disposition fee, once again, everyone's best interests should be taken into account and it's very situational. There's a lot that goes into transactions, from acquisition to refinancing to disposition...Being ethical with fee structures and having everyone's returns minimums met I'd say is the first priority, then everything after that comes down do the amount of work that needs to be done to execute. 

Every project is different and I think the main thing here is giving investors the highest return possible, while being ethical with fee allocation, and having full transparency with all partners involved. 

Post: Modeling Future Occupancy and Rates for STRs

Kyle A.Posted
  • Investor
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Posts 47
  • Votes 23
Quote from @John Underwood:
Quote from @Kyle A.:

I typically work in the commercial multifamily space using the LTR approach, but currently broadening scope into smaller multis, potentially using the STR approach. Those of you that have experience modeling out pro formas for STR's, what's the best way to project occupancy and rate variability throughout the year? I'm looking in areas that experience all the seasons, so I need to take into account the drastic income fluctuations throughout the year.

I've checked out tools like AirDNA, but not sure how accurate that is, and also looking into contacting super hosts or someone who specializes in STR acquisitions. Please let me know if you fit into one of those categories or if you have any other feedback regarding this, I'd love to chat.


 I prefer to use actual similar local comps that I can easily look at on Vrbo and Airbnb.


How are you doing occupancy projections? And when you're comping for rates, are you doing a day by day analysis for each day of the year for every comp? Or is there another way to take variability into account