Florida Keys STR analysis

[Tyler Ingram]

Hey Bigger Pockets!

My fiance and I are looking to buy our first STR. We're close to making an offer but want to get another set of eyes on the numbers.

Here's what we're looking at:

2 Bed/2 Bath condo in the Florida Keys. Fully furnished, would keep most of the furniture and only need to put an estimated $5k into redoing some bathroom tile. Everything else is turnkey. Weekly rentals allowed.

Ask price is $499,000, 79 days on the market so we'd offer $450,000 to get the conversation started. Seller already has $9800 in bookings for January that would be transferred to us if we buy.

Income:

-AirDNA estimate $7775/month with 82% occupancy at $312/night

-Data.rabbu 50th percentile estimate $6428/month with 60% occupancy at $328/night. (75th percentile estimate $9596 with 81% occupancy at $379/night)

-Awning.com estimate $7583/month with 84% occupancy at $293/night

Expenses:

-Principle/interest $2832/month

-HOA $733/month

-$1417/month hurricane/flood insurance (recently reassessed at $17k/year. Seller has paid 2023 in full and HOA is shopping rates for next year, but want to keep these numbers factored in)

-Utilities and Internet $180/month

-Taxes $457.50/month

Anything else I should consider here? Are those income numbers realistic? Thanks in advance to anyone that is willing to give some insight!