Florida Keys STR analysis

[Tyler Ingram]

Hey Bigger Pockets!

My fiance and I are looking to buy our first STR. We're close to making an offer but want to get another set of eyes on the numbers.

Here's what we're looking at:

2 Bed/2 Bath condo in the Florida Keys. Fully furnished, would keep most of the furniture and only need to put an estimated $5k into redoing some bathroom tile. Everything else is turnkey. Weekly rentals allowed.

Ask price is $499,000, 79 days on the market so we'd offer $450,000 to get the conversation started. Seller already has $9800 in bookings for January that would be transferred to us if we buy.

Income:

-AirDNA estimate $7775/month with 82% occupancy at $312/night

-Data.rabbu 50th percentile estimate $6428/month with 60% occupancy at $328/night. (75th percentile estimate $9596 with 81% occupancy at $379/night)

-Awning.com estimate $7583/month with 84% occupancy at $293/night

Expenses:

-Principle/interest $2832/month

-HOA $733/month

-$1417/month hurricane/flood insurance (recently reassessed at $17k/year. Seller has paid 2023 in full and HOA is shopping rates for next year, but want to keep these numbers factored in)

-Utilities and Internet $180/month

-Taxes $457.50/month

Anything else I should consider here? Are those income numbers realistic? Thanks in advance to anyone that is willing to give some insight!

[John Underwood]

Quote from @Tyler Ingram:

Hey Bigger Pockets!

My fiance and I are looking to buy our first STR. We're close to making an offer but want to get another set of eyes on the numbers.

Here's what we're looking at:

2 Bed/2 Bath condo in the Florida Keys. Fully furnished, would keep most of the furniture and only need to put an estimated $5k into redoing some bathroom tile. Everything else is turnkey. Weekly rentals allowed.

Ask price is $499,000, 79 days on the market so we'd offer $450,000 to get the conversation started. Seller already has $9800 in bookings for January that would be transferred to us if we buy.

Income:

-AirDNA estimate $7775/month with 82% occupancy at $312/night

-Data.rabbu 50th percentile estimate $6428/month with 60% occupancy at $328/night. (75th percentile estimate $9596 with 81% occupancy at $379/night)

-Awning.com estimate $7583/month with 84% occupancy at $293/night

Expenses:

-Principle/interest $2832/month

-HOA $733/month

-$1417/month hurricane/flood insurance (recently reassessed at $17k/year. Seller has paid 2023 in full and HOA is shopping rates for next year, but want to keep these numbers factored in)

-Utilities and Internet $180/month

-Taxes $457.50/month

Anything else I should consider here? Are those income numbers realistic? Thanks in advance to anyone that is willing to give some insight!

 Be very conservative with insurance. There have been reports of it going up 200% or being completely dropped as more and  more companies pull completely out of Florida.

HOAs can change rules, have special assessments and increase fees.

I avoid all HOA properties but that is just me.