Is market demand on airdna meaningful?

[Patrick Forelli]

Hello BP community,

Looking to invest in a short term rental within driving distance of Charlotte NC, and I'm leveraging Airdna to target the right market and properties. I'm mainly looking at rental demand, ADR, average occupancy, and average revenue. I also see market trends on the number of active rentals by quarter.

The rental demand calculations isn't adding up to me. Blowing rock as an example has a 48 rental demand yet having a 59 % occupancy and average revenue of 4,900, while charlotte has a demand of 59 with 58 % occ and 2400 revenue. North Charleston has a rental demand of 86 with a 65 % occ and a 3500 revenue. Charleston has a rental demand of 74 yet a higher occ of 75 and revenue of 5500.

Is there a variable here that I'm missing, or is Airdna rental demand a flawed statistic that I shouldn't take too seriously?

Should I care at all about occupancy at all or just revenue? 

Here is a little more info about my journey. 

I am 24 with a solid w2 job (125 k base and 165 with commission) and I've caught the real estate bug. Currently do not own a home. Charlotte has great rental options close to downtown for about 1 k a month. Owning a property would mean living further away from the city, it would be hard to get any of my friends to live with me, so owning over renting would decrease my day to day experience. Looking to invest in Airbnb's within driving distance on a 2nd home loan. I've got about 55 k saved up, but with my low expenses and solid income, I can confidently save 25 k + a year.

I want to find a profitable market within driving distance (4-5 hours max). I am looking for properties in the 350 k range. Charlotte is not the best option due to an average airbnb market and high housing cost.

Here is my overall approach and I would love some general feedback.
I am leveraging airdna considering some of the statistics above to target a profitable airbnb market, then I am cross checking that with available homes and making the judgement call with whether the property I can afford, if set up correctly, can compete with solid listings making at least 60 k. (enemy method)

This investment must break even, and I am looking for safe options that don't necessarily need the highest upside. Looking for a single, not necessarily a home run. What property gives me the highest chance of making 60 k ( or 2x the down payment) so 250 k property, 50 k is acceptable, and a 400 k property, 80 k is the bar.

Upon conducting some research, I'm seeing that the general airbnb market trends don't always apply to me. Gatlinburg area is super profitable, but when I take closer look, 600 k + properties with panoramic mountain views are killing it, and a 300 k property would be a disaster.

Looking very closely into the Wilmington and North Charleston markets, potentially Myrtle beach as well.

Is there best practice on the minimum number of active listings in an area to deem it viable, or is perhaps a small market better as I can make a 350 k property pop?

I'm a little concerned that often the top 15 % suck up all the revenue, and a 300 k property is a huge risk without as much upside in a market with strong competition.

Thanks,

Patrick