St George vs Mesquite for my first vacation home?

[Thomas Bailey]

Hello! I live in Salt Lake City and purchased myself a new townhome to live in personally (Dec 2021). HOA allows short term rentals, so I thought, once I move out, I can rent this on airbnb!

For fun/money/testing purposes, I decided to rent my spare bedroom out... ITS GOING GREAT!  I'm having a lot of fun with this and learning how to manage this listing...  Which brought me to this idea.

I want a vacation home that I can use during the winter months, then rent out spring/summer/fall.  A mix use of investment and personal use...

Living in Salt Lake City, the warm cities that are drivable come to mind is St. George / Kanab / Mesquite / Las Vegas. (4-6 hours).

I've narrowed it down to 2 properties.

St. George = EXPENSIVE. 4 bed townhome brand new is going for $730k. LOTS of competition. Airdna / awning.com / simply looking at calendars on airbnb... I'm predicting $5-$7k a month.  Averaging out 8 similar townhomes, I get $6.3k a month.

$374ish x 30 days @57% occupied = $6395

Mesquite = Initially was not on my radar. Small retirement city, with 7+ golf courses. I know they have a decent amount of softball/soccer tournaments going on here (I'd imagine fall/spring time). I can get into a new 3 bed SFH for $385k. I'm predicting $4k a month. I do think adding a pool in the backyard launches me to $6k a month. Not a lot of competition here. Airdna shows extreme demand from end of September to mid April. I'll admit I am a little worried about the hot summers here... I think a pool would help me here.

$239ish x 30 days @ 56% occupied = $4015.

I'm stuck in analysis paralysis mode.  I could see myself really getting into this and buying a bunch of vacation homes to self-manage... I just don't know which one to start with.

Which would you recommend for a rookie?  Starting in an expensive city (St George) with 2500ish Airbnbs nearby, or start in a small town (Mesquite) with 150ish Airbnbs.

Thank YOU for your thoughts and advice! I really want to make this work!