Feedback on my cashflow model for the Smokies ?

[Saranya Sundararajan]

Smokies Cash Flow Model

We are looking to buy a 3bedroom in the Smokies and this is the model we came up with. Occupancy rates + Average Daily Rate - taken from Airdna 2019 data + assessing the airbnb/vrbo listings rate for these months

Can the experts/pundits as someone called it here, tell us if this is realistic , too conservative, too optimistic? I know it is property dependent but trying to guage if this a conservative estimate or not?