Does anyone find AirDNA to be WAY way off in some scenarios?

[Richard E.]

Esteemed listmates,

I am looking at a particular property in a market that I have some ok knowledge of. (Have been poking around there for awhile, haven't bought yet, know a local PM who is a great guy and gotten alot of data from him, done alot of database research, been in escrow a few times, but never panned out) Not a complete noob, but also very far from anything resembling really knowledgable.

So i am looking at a property, 3/3 2800 sf poolhouse on acreage, has all (or many) of the desireable characteristics that one would want in this market. However- The AirBNB revenue estimator tool from BP (And AirDNA also, as I have that too)- estimates the revenue at $48-50k yearly. I would estimate something like this at about 100k.

AirDNA is literally off by a mile. That bothers me alot to see, as I have the nagging question "Does AirDNA know something about that partucular spot that I don't?" The PM and the agent don't seem to think so, but of course they want me to buy it.

Query: Has anyone had a sitch where AirDNA estimator is just a million miles off? Especially in a market with alot of STRS? (This is right around Yosemite Natl Park so lots of STR data to go from) (also FWIW awning has it at 92k which is a little closer to what I would think- but i also find airdna to me more reliable in general than awning)