Looking for advice on STR investing in the upcoming economy.

[Jimmy Bell]

this is my 1st post but here it goes. I looking for advice on weather it is a good idea to purchase and investment air bnb property in key west. Short term rental is a great market there but I'm concerned that economic downturn could change that. I cant find how the 2008 crash effected the short term rental market. Looking for some advice.

Thanking in advanced

[William Anderson]

Having been around and actively invested during the late 2000s, I can tell you this situation we are in now is far different.  When Barney Frank (congressman from NY) told Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to make a loan to anyone with a pulse, the market took a horrendous dive.  The same Barney Frank was so berated that he co-authored the Frank-Dodd act to correct this problem, hopefully working now.

So, my point is there will not be a housing crash. According to NAR (National Association of Realtors), markets across the country are cooling down fast. The biggest to cool off were the ones that ran up with COVID e.g. Utah, Idaho, Colorado, and more. Places people moved to when they left California for example are all in the cooling-off process. What this means is that prices are hitting their peak.

Every market is different, there is no national market so yours in KeyWest may be different than the other big metros that are taking a hit now.  I can tell you that my vacation rentals on the Mississippi Gulf Coast are busy this year in what I call a normal year.  2021 was a record year along the Missississippi Gulf Coast and in many similar areas.  That record was not repeated this year.

Someting I have learned about my market is that some people who were traveling from Texas, the mid-west, and areas directly north who were going down to Florida changed plans.  Because of the cost of gas to drive to the bottom of Florida, they are stopping on the Mississippi Gulf Coast and the Florida panhandle.  

Nearly everyone staying at my properties and those of my associates is driving now where in the past many flew.  That is another change.  The point I am making here is that there are some serious unknowns now that may or may not shake out in November after the election.  Be cautious, analyze and plan your moves based on the best information you can acquire.