Home value declines in 2nd home markets

[Sean Bramble]

Hey everyone - I’m listening to the latest On The Market podcast and they are specifically talking about value declines in 2nd home markets due to demand from 2nd home buyers drying up due to rising rates/ affordability. I’ve also noticed Zillow dropping 12 mo appreciation estimates for several markets I have searches set up in (flipped from +10% to -10% within the last month - major change). These 2nd home marketsare the same markets many of us target for STRs investments .. so this is worrisome

I’m under contract on my first property in one of these markets which pencils out well projections-wise… plenty of profit margin to weather a recession/ lower demand from guests and not have to sell at a loss … but I still feel hesitant buying an asset that could lose $100K in value quite fast. Any thoughts? Should I be waiting these next few months out to see what happens? I’ve seen a few other posts on this topic which felt alarmist at the time, but now the talking heads on BP are talking about it as well … hmm …

[Bill B.]

I wonder where these 2nd home markets are? I mean obviously they aren’t talking about Las Vegas or the entire state of Florida, Arizona, or Hawaii which are still skyrocketing. You talk about the fear of losing $100k quickly? Well anyone who didn’t buy 6 months ago lost AT LEAST $100k, maybe $300k PER PROPERTY THEY DIDN'T BUY if you count the increased mortgage interest. (3%-5% is a $42k loss over 30 years PER $100k purchased.) There’s no reason to believe those numbers won’t be twice as large in 6 more months.