Gatlinburg & Pigeon Forge STRs - Pre/Post COVID Rents & Occupancy

[Aaron Akins]

Hi All,

I've seen a few discussions related to this topic, but wanted to see if I can nail down a few specific questions. I'm planning to purchase an STR and need to ensure my numbers will work - even when the COVID hype slows.

Does anyone have any specific data that gives the average % increase in STR rates in the market I've mentioned above relative to the pre-COVID market? Specifically, on average, how much higher (%) are property owners charging for their rates on STRs in Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge compared to 2019?

On a similar note, on average, how much higher (%) are the overall occupancy rates for Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge today compared to 2019?

The reality is that if I buy a property in today's market, I should not depend on home appreciation to protect my investment; therefore, I need to ensure the rates I'm able to charge for STR rents will more than cover the mortgage.

For those who plan to buy in the next few months, or that have purchased within the past 12 months, how will you or how did you go about analyzing your STR properties to ensure the numbers will work even if rental rates and occupancy rates decrease?

I recognize that seeing the 2019 numbers on the actual property one is making an offer on is the best way to know historical rents for that given property, but I feel like there must be a bit more to the puzzle. 

Is anyone finding deals that make sense running conservative numbers along side the super high asking prices for these properties?  

Thanks in advance,

Aaron