Understanding the dichotomy between Cap Rates and IRR in MF

Understanding the dichotomy between Cap Rates and IRR in MF

Investor · New York, NY · Member since 2020 · 94 posts · 29 votes

To preface this email - I found a deal that resulted in a return of 8% over 5 years with a 2% rent increases YOY. 


My partner responded - 

"Might as well invest your money in the stock market and make 8% in a few days…Or go buy in Ohio, where the return is much higher.

Doesn’t make sense to invest at 8%, for me at least."


Overall the theme is that during the quick analysis, we found that rents are already at the market. If there’s no room for rental growth, then returns are not high enough for the deal to make sense.

So my follow up question is how do multifamily investors include asset appreciation in their returns.

If my thesis is that overall the San Antonio market is going to receive asset appreciation greater than the rents over x amount of years, how does my underwriting process change?

I ask because the cap rate is based on cash flow, while other investors seek ROI Based on the appreciation.

I understand that multi-family valuations are derived from cash flow. But what I want to understand is the dichotomy between the cap rate and IRR. IRR will include the cap rate PLUS the asset appreciation PLUS the leverage going into the deal.

So why do multifamily investors just focus on cap rate when IRR is clearly a more confident figure for your return?

I will admit that my question is largely due to my inexperience in the field. I am really trying to understand this.

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Rental Property Investor · RVA · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
5y

Contrary to popular belief, Cap rate is not a direct indicator of your return and it is not, on its own, an indicator of a good or bad deal.

It is much more accurate to compare cash on cash return and IRR. Cap rate does not include one of your biggest costs - the cost of debt. It also does not factor in your business plan. As @Peter Tverdov said, cap rate just indicates what the price is right now, with the current income and expense figures. 

Most of us are not all that focused on cap rate. It is one figure of many that influences the potential returns on a property. Also understand and calculate Gross Rent Multiplier, Price per door, debt service coverage ratio, breakeven occupancy, to name a few.

Also if your partner knows a reliable, repeatable way to make 8% in 2 days in the market, then yeah, why would you not just do that? You'll be ultrawealthy in no time at that rate. (My bet is they actually don't have such a strategy)

All that said, the strategy of banking on market appreciation in a particular area isn't one I'd recommend. Focus on finding assets that are currently under their potential market value today. Right now. Then bring those assets up in market value through value add. You have control over that business plan, you do not have control over market appreciation in San Antonio. That market appreciation should just be icing on the cake. 

Check out What Every Real Estate Investor Needs to Know About Cash Flow... And 36 Other Key Financial Measures by Frank Gallinelli. It'll teach you keys to the underwriting process. It is a little dated, but the math still all works the same.

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  • Peter TverdovBusiness Member
    Developer · New Brunswick, NJ · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    IRR I find to be a silly metric. It's based on a total assumption of where the market can be X years from now.

    No one knows that. No one.

    Cap rate tells me what the price is TODAY. Right now. That's accurate. Everything else is faith in the operator to deliver this magical IRR number he/she is selling.

  • Rental Property Investor · Upstate, NY · Member since 2012 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    5y

    We picked up a MF that needed a LOT of upgrading. It was passed over by 20 who went through it. But my youngest wanted to try a live-in MF with some land. She already had some REI investments that we helped her get into, so she thought she was ready, BUT my wife was NOT pleased.

    At <30% capacity, poorly PM'd  & losing money we got it at a great discount Cash. The rehab etc was been drawn out as we did it all ourselves. Although we never anticipated any significant appreciation it has come about by virtue of the upgrading & we were offered 2x our investment by a fellow investor. The rents are now @ mkt & this dog is now running @ a 20% p.a. return. 

    It rents immediately & we have not had any down time between transitioning tenants, many of whom come in on previous tenant referrals. My daughter has since moved out of state & manages the property via social media. She has a great bunch of millennial tenants some of who are working from home so enjoy the semi-rural quiet & extra space.

  • Rental Property Investor · RVA · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y

    Contrary to popular belief, Cap rate is not a direct indicator of your return and it is not, on its own, an indicator of a good or bad deal.

    It is much more accurate to compare cash on cash return and IRR. Cap rate does not include one of your biggest costs - the cost of debt. It also does not factor in your business plan. As @Peter Tverdov said, cap rate just indicates what the price is right now, with the current income and expense figures. 

    Most of us are not all that focused on cap rate. It is one figure of many that influences the potential returns on a property. Also understand and calculate Gross Rent Multiplier, Price per door, debt service coverage ratio, breakeven occupancy, to name a few.

    Also if your partner knows a reliable, repeatable way to make 8% in 2 days in the market, then yeah, why would you not just do that? You'll be ultrawealthy in no time at that rate. (My bet is they actually don't have such a strategy)

    All that said, the strategy of banking on market appreciation in a particular area isn't one I'd recommend. Focus on finding assets that are currently under their potential market value today. Right now. Then bring those assets up in market value through value add. You have control over that business plan, you do not have control over market appreciation in San Antonio. That market appreciation should just be icing on the cake. 

    Check out What Every Real Estate Investor Needs to Know About Cash Flow... And 36 Other Key Financial Measures by Frank Gallinelli. It'll teach you keys to the underwriting process. It is a little dated, but the math still all works the same.

  • Investor · New York, NY · Member since 2020 · 94 posts · 29 votes
    5y

    @Taylor L. You write:

    Focus on finding assets that are currently under their potential market value today. Right now.

    And then you write:

    Most of us are not all that focused on cap rate.


    This seems contradictory that you would not focus on cap rate, yet for finding assets that are currently under their potential market value, wouldn't cap rate be on the better metrics to focus your efforts on?

  • Lender · Nationwide · Member since 2018 · 571 posts · 310 votes
    5y

    @Taylor L. gave you a good answer, and I second his recommendation of Frank Gallinelli's book. 

    Let me add that IRR is an intrinsically flawed metric for standard real estate investments. It assumes that all cashflow paid out is reinvested at the IRR. That's wrong, and so IRR takes the actual returns and makes them look better.

    The solution is to use MIRR, which adjusts for that flaw. Much better metric.

  • Rental Property Investor · RVA · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Matthew Metros:

    @Taylor L. You write:

    Focus on finding assets that are currently under their potential market value today. Right now.

    And then you write:

    Most of us are not all that focused on cap rate.


    This seems contradictory that you would not focus on cap rate, yet for finding assets that are currently under their potential market value, wouldn't cap rate be on the better metrics to focus your efforts on?

    Good question. A property is under valued if it is not up to its current potential market value. The way to drive value is to raise NOI by increasing income and/or decreasing expenses. A common strategy and the one we pursue is by renovating interiors & exteriors and raising rents to market. I generally advise against trying to cut expenses too far because you can only go so low until you're impacting operations.

    The properties we buy are under their current potential market value because the NOI is not up to what it could be. We can control the NOI, we cannot control market cap rates.

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