Potential tenant with late payment history

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Would you rent to a prospective tenant who has a history of late payments?  From the landlord reference, I discovered that he made 3 late payments in the past year.  Each late payment was collected within 1-3 days (after 5-day grade period).  He will be moving in with a disabled parent, which would probably make it difficult to evict him if he’s late on payments.  I have another prospective tenant who will pay $200/mo lower rent but has been never late and also much better income to rent (6x) and employment with a very reputable firm.  

Would you rent to the first prospect for higher rent? My gut tells me not, I don’t want stress of chasing after a payment but want to know what others think. 

[Patricia Steiner]

Know this:  what starts out crazy, end crazier.  

I opt for tenants who pose no crazy, have a history of it, and understand that I won't create any in their lives and they're not going to create any in mine.  If you want to chase rent payments down 3 times or more a year, go for it.  I would bolt.  The best predictor of what's to come, is what's happened in the recent past.  You did the homework...trust it and move on.