Social Security Question...follow up to BP Money Podcast #344

Social Security Question...follow up to BP Money Podcast #344

Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2017 · 13 posts · 2 votes

Jeremy Keil mentioned that they expect the social security payment amounts to drop to 75% (of current amounts) in 2034. I have a few points of clarification I'm hoping someone can help me with.  Does that change (the drop to 75%) for everyone or just those who start to draw in year 2034 or later? Ie. a) will it effect my mom who has been drawing for years now, and b) will it effect me if I were to start drawing in 2032 for example?
I will be turning 70 in 2034, so the exact timing is important to me. I had been thinking to wait and start my draw at age 70, since that's the highest amount that would be available (by current settings/rules). But depending on answer to above question I'm wondering if I should start to draw at age 69 (to beat the 2034 year, or at 62 since the 75% (estimated drop) would end up being the same as the lower amount that would normally happen at 62 (compared to 70)?
I also understand that the year stated (2024) is probably just an estimate, so not sure if I should make my plans around that. But basically, I'd like to add social security into my financial planning and want to get a semi-accurate estimate to input now that I'm feeling more confident that it won't be gone completely.  

Help, please, and thank you :)

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  • Realtor · Hanover Twp, PA · Member since 2018 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3y

    @Julie Rimola, there is no solid information about this topic. Only conjecture.

    There are always estimates for when Social Security will no longer have enough money to may full benefits, but it depends on many factors so its only an estimate.

    Also, Congress and the President are well aware of the issue and will likely make some changes. Maybe they raise the full retirement age again a couple years for people retiring into the future. Maybe they raise the maximum wages that pay Social Security taxes to make richer people pay more. There are lots of options.

    Any changes to benefits they make will likely affect younger people. Years ago, when they changed the full retirement age from 65 to 67 it didn't apply to anyone anywhere near retirement age. People closer to retirement vote! They are also less able to adjust to changes in their benefits.

    So, if I was you I would make my plans based on your current estimated benefits. You are well into your career and its unlikely that any substantial changes to your benefits will be made. 

  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
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    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    3y

    @Julie Rimola

    No idea who that is but ignore. Scare tactics only and that will never happen.

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  • Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2017 · 13 posts · 2 votes
    3y

    thanks for the feedback!

  • Financial Advisor · Saint Paul, MN · Member since 2016 · 190 posts · 143 votes
    3y

    If you read the first page of your SS statement, it states this 75% figure. 

    Think of SS as a bathtub full of water. You, me & everyone else is working & adding money to the bath tub.  Your parents & retirees who are taking SS are taking water out of the bathtub (the drain).  The 75% figure basically says that in 2034, IF WE CHANGE NOTHING, there will only be enough money going into the bathtub to pay 75% of the money coming out.  
    This is HIGHLY unlikely to happen.  Can you imagine a politician telling the largest voting block that they will do nothing to change a 25% decrease in their income?  

    1) small changes are all that is necessary to kick this can down the road for another 20-30 years.  IE- small increase in payroll taxes or a slightly increased full retirement age.  

    2) when changes like this are made, they typically are made incrementally.  IE - if insurance companies misprice a product, they first correct it by modifying the cost to NEW customers.  If that is not enough, they will then go back to current customers & increase costs or cut benefits.  Meaning that it is much much more likely that any changes in SS will affect the younger generation first, and the older generation second (if at all).  

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