Should ROE trigger a cash out refinance in this market for my specific scenario?

[Elvis Nasi]

Hello BP,

Between two properties I purchased 5 years ago, there is around $200k in equity. My rates are adjustable commercial setting to change mid 2024 then 2029 full refinance. Currently they sit at 4.5% and 4%. The ROE is sitting at around 11% on both properties and by mid 2024, I expect ROE to drop more (increasing rents again now in January). The question is, do I leave them alone as they are cash flowing very well or do I pull some money out (If I do that will mean I will be getting my initial 25% down payment plus some back)? If I pull the money out, I am looking at my monthly payments to increase by ~$1700$ (assuming a 6.5% rate in mid 2024). I can offset some of it if I buy $200k worth of CD's or Treasuries and monitor the market but still the cash out would decrease my cash flow by 700-800$. I am not relying on the cash flow to cover my expenses as I am working full time also. In terms of strategy and plan/goals, I do plan to grow my portfolio. Any insight or guidance is appreciated. Cheers

[Andrew Kiel]

I'll start by looking at this in the most simple terms - return on equity.  I think the first question (of many) is where will my $200k of equity make the most return?  11% ROE is mentioned as the current number and you can likely anticipate the new ROE after the interest rate adjusts in mid 2024.

Can I find a better investment for this equity that will return significantly more than it's currently getting?  

Unless you can clearly answer yes to this, I personally don't think a cash out refi would be a good scenario.  If you're going to park the money in CD's or Treasuries in anticipation of a great investment opportunity, sure.  If you're pulling cash out just for the sake of putting it into lower paying investments, that seems counterintuitive.