Weigh in on my plan to increase liquidity pre-correction

[Derek Sperzel]

With all the talk of a Real Estate Correction looming, we've been self-educating, and considering different ways to prepare.  We understand that being highly liquid is especially critical for acquiring deals during an economic downturn.  We personally need to make a choice regarding our future liquidity, and we're asking the BP Community to weigh in with their thoughts.  

We have a recently completed flip under contract, and should be closing in the next few weeks(fingers-crossed). We own the flip "free-and-clear" and do not plan to immediately reinvest this capital. For some background, we typically use the BRRRR Strategy, we focus on SFH, and only flip houses when a property doesn't meet our buy-and-hold criteria. We anticipate that after closing costs, commissions, and taxes, we should take home approximately $195k on this deal (acquisition cost, rehab, & profit). In our market (Southern Indiana/Louisville, KY) that is enough capital to take on as many as two more small/medium SFH BRRRR deals without leverage (we prefer delayed financing).

We are not risk adverse, so we thought, how can we leverage this upcoming cash position? We owe about $165k on our personal residence, it should appraise for around $285k, and that means we've got about $120k in equity. If we pay off our mortgage, it would allow us to establish a HELOC for about $256,500 based on 90% LTV. In essence we'd be increasing our accessible cash position from $195,000 up to $256,500, which is an increase of $61,500, or 31.5% change in cash(256,500 - 195,000 / 195,000). Obviously HELOC's comes with a variable rate, but we also would be saving money that would have otherwise been consumed in the form of interest payments on our existing mortgage. Given our current business model (BRRRR), we usually can pull most of our initial investment back out in 6-7 months through a refinance.

We'd love for you all to give us your thoughts on this strategy, what you would do in our position, and why.  Thanks in Advance!

[Caleb Heimsoth]

@Derek Sperzel. My best advice is to sell everything at a 50 percent discount to market value to me. I will then resell it and make a lot of moola. But now you have money for the impending crash.

Real estate cycles tend to move in 18 year cycles which means the next one is likely around 2027. Could be sooner but I don’t think it’s going to be in the next year or two. If the economy slows that doesn’t mean housing values tank. They could just stabilize