The Silent Portfolio Killer: Inflation

The Silent Portfolio Killer: Inflation

Developer · Houston, TX · Member since 2017 · 161 posts · 134 votes

The inflation alarm bells are on high alert, and investors are jittery.

Inflation is unavoidable at this moment, with economists forecasting inflation for 2021. Last week Billionaire' bond king' Jeffrey Gundlach warned inflation could impact stock prices. Investors have reacted by sending the stock and crypto markets on a roller coaster ride.

Inflation is a portfolio killer - threatening both stocks and fixed income assets in a traditional portfolio. Inflation is a stock killer because it sinks stock prices. The Fed typically reacts to inflation by increasing interest rates to cool the economy - by using the ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure approach.

Higher inflation means higher borrowing costs and input costs (supplies, materials, labor) for businesses. Theoretically, increased costs mean lower expected earnings in the long run, putting downward pressure on a company's stock price.

It usually takes months for the effects of inflation to play out. Still, mainstream investors don't typically wait around for the shoe to drop - sometimes reacting instantly to bad news as the markets have demonstrated in the past weeks.

The typical reaction by investors to inflationary fears and the potential slide in the standard of living because of reduced buying power is to divest themselves of stocks and put their money into savings or some other fixed income asset like CDs, money market accounts, or dividend stocks. The problem with this approach is the eroding power of inflation.

Putting money in a savings account, CD, or money market account that pays no more than 1% annually while inflation rages at 5% or more is an asset killer - eroding your buying capacity by 4% every year.

As for dividend stocks, they're just as vulnerable to market volatility as every other stock, and dividends are not guaranteed. Moreover, companies can reduce dividends at their discretion - even suspending them altogether during hard times.

Inflation will kill the traditional portfolio, but it won't kill every portfolio. How can you protect your portfolio? Invest in assets that leverage inflation.

As consumers prioritize their expenditures less towards luxuries and more towards necessities, investments in tangible assets that revolve around consumers' needs and not wants are what will best insulate a portfolio against the corrosive effects of inflation.

The ideal asset will generate recession-proof income while appreciating in step with inflation. That's why investors seek out commercial real estate during trying times - to generate recession-insulated income while preserving capital through the period of rising prices.

As the Great Recession taught us, there will always be assets that will be in demand - affordable housing being one of these assets. In a downturn and in inflationary times, consumers will downsize from single-family homes to multifamily housing to reduce expenses. Unfortunately, the demand for multifamily housing starting with the Great Recession hasn't let up - with the gap between demand and supply continually expanding since 2008.

Savvy investors anticipated inflation last year with the infusion of trillions of stimulus money into the economy. They prepared by picking up affordable housing assets, which weathered the storm better than most other commercial real estate segments - being one of the few segments that saw increased rents with low vacancies.

Inflation may kill the traditional portfolio, but it won't kill every portfolio.

Portfolios allocated to tangible assets generating cash flow while appreciating rising prices are the ideal hedge against inflation.

Please do not wait for inflation to rear its ugly head. Prepare now by allocating to the right assets.

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  • Real Estate Investor · Springfield, MO · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    Agreed that inflation is going to be a problem, but even 5% won't be a deal killer.  It'll be more like someone doing a "brake check" on a tail-gating driver.

    What will be terrible is if we get back to high or hyper inflation.  5% will look like good times.  We sort of saw it this past year with the price of lumber for example.  I checked my Lowe's account, and the 2x4 - 8 foot pressure treated boards I bought for $4.47 each in 2019 today sell for over $10. That's the kind inflation that clobbers everyone, even savvy real estate investors.  Kind of hard to do flips and maintenance work on buildings when your costs are doubling every 12 months and supply chains can't keep up.  The cost of borrowing money could skyrocket or disappears because no one will want to lend, fearing inflation will gobble up the value of the funds loaned.  12%-15% hard money may look like a bargain at that point.

    I have no crystal ball, or at best a very murky one.  Taxes will have to rise precipitously at some point to pull back this crazy amount of dollars artificially injected into the economy. When that happens, folks in higher income brackets and/or who do a lot of value-add deals will hunker down and/or divest themselves of investments that bring a lot of tax liability with them.  If the current administration goes forward with their plan to get rid of 1031 exchanges, this will further discourage sales and all of the economic activity that goes with them.  Lenders might see a boom of refinance as investors pull out equity instead of sell, but then again if we get high/hyper inflation interest rates that may make refinancing unattractive or impossible.

    Simply put: I think there's a strong possibility we see a return to the stagflation of the 1970s: tons of currency sloshing thru the system, high interest rates promulgated to combat inflation, lower production due to companies having to deal with those higher interest rates, and depressed incomes grinding everything to a halt until we stop this crazy money printing spree.

  • Chris BlackburnPro Member
    Developer · Salem, OR · Member since 2014 · 193 posts · 110 votes
    5y

    I think the second issue that comes with accelerated inflation 10%-25% per year (what we currently are in) or hyperinflation 25%-1000% per year, is product hoarding to mitigate rapid price changes. We are already seeing this and it will get worse. If you think it expensive to be buying PT 2x4's at double the price, think of if you can't even get the 2x4's for a project! The whole project is stalled and all your subs are stuck. (We are seeing this now with pecs fittings) 10% inflation is the floor right now. Be careful with 10 year leases and get your rate pushed out as far as you can. If you are doing multifamily- pay now for HUD financing and get 35 year fixed rates.

  • Rental Property Investor · Erie, PA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    My man, you're preaching to the choir. Real estate battles inflation, has great tax benefits and the tenant(s) pay the mortgage for you. 

    I get the argument of commercial being riskier based on the longer lease and the lease options though one must consider that in much commercial the tenant pays the property taxes, insurance landscaping, all utilities, etc. - in our industrial we are responsible for the walls and the roof (though having multiple tenants can make this trickier - for instance in one warehouse we have 4-5 tenants on the bottom floor and so we pay the water and electric - not ideal).

    Point is, some commercial has zero to little cost VS residential/MF.  For example, we owned a FedEx in Syracuse and spent - over the course of the 12 years we owned it - $1000 on a roof repair. Sure - if there's hyperinflation we might be locked into a lease where we could be getting more rent - but we're still paying off the loan and cash flowing.

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