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Updated almost 7 years ago on . Most recent reply

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Skyler Harris
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With so much talk about another crash

Skyler Harris
Posted
Okay I’m a little confused, I was in 8th grade during the 08 crash and I’m young in the real estate game so don’t rip my head off. But I’ve noticed the discussion of another crash starting to come about more often which yes the interest rates will rise which will make the monthly notes rise. Which will make very few people able to afford a mortgage. But at the same time wouldn’t that make the need for rentals go up as well? Meaning apartments and rental homes that cost 1400/month now, go even higher if the interest rates go up??

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Linda Weygant
  • Investor and CPA
  • Arvada, CO
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Linda Weygant
  • Investor and CPA
  • Arvada, CO
Replied

People are nervous about another crash because "it's time".  Economic cycles exist and we are "overdue" for a correction.  But some cycles are pretty short while others are quite long and "we're due" is the ONLY reason why MOST people are nervous and talking.  Nationwide, there are exactly zero economic indicators for a full crash right now.  Your local economic situation might vary if you're heavily dependent on a poorly performing employer or industry, for example.

Interest rates are increasing, slightly and slowly.  That is not an indicator of a crash.  A huge spike in interest rates would be concerning.

We are entering a period of increased inflation.  True.  However inflation has been almost stagnant the last decade while the CPI went negative several years in the last 10.  A slight increase in the rate of inflation is not an indicator of a crash.

Tariffs are going to tank our economy.  Maybe (probably).  This is one I'd keep an eye on and watch my properties that are in heavy agricultural or mining/smelting/refining areas.

Wage stagnation is a problem.  Also true.  Some areas may experience lower demand due to inability of population to purchase.  Keep an eye locally on your areas that don't seem to have decent wage growth.  This is concerning, but not "crash" news.

Income, social and/or racial  inequality is a problem.  This is actually the one that I'm most concerned about.  It's tied in with wage stagnation, obviously.  I'm not concerned quite so much with this issue on its own, but people can only take so much "Let Them Eat Cake" before they will come as a mob and erect guillotines.  Whether that is literal or figurative is yet to be determined.  But this kind of social unrest causes a massive amount of economic instability and spills over into every area of a society.

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