Look into your crystal ball with me! (self-driving cars)

[Samuel Bavido]

Transportation is on the verge of the greatest shift since Henry Ford. Most car manufacturers are shooting for highway driving to be automated by the early 2020's, and fully automated in all situations by the 2030s. Within two decades, most new cars will drive themselves. Within three decades (that's by the time your 30-year note is up!), it is likely that human driving will be illegal on many roads. 

What does this mean for real estate? I'm extremely curious to hear the BP communities thoughts. 

As I see it, the biggest impact is going to be a drop in value in densely populated markets, with a corresponding surge in value for homes within a two-hour drive of those cities. People will be willing to accept significantly longer commutes, because they can sleep, watch TV or work during the commute. For many office workers, I suspect the typical day at the office will consist of two hours of "remote" work from the car, four hours in the office, then two more hours on the drive home. Many offices will have showers/changing rooms, because workers go to sleep in their car (it's got a fold-out bed in it, right?) and don't wake up until they reach the office. 

Long term, this means we're going to see fewer pockets of high prices and low prices. San Francisco and Denver are going to lose value, because there is so much space within a few hour drive of those cities where you can build a home. Many rural areas will see appreciation...but not as drastic as the drop in value in the cities. Of course, there will still be more and less expensive areas; it just won't be quite as drastic. 

There are 3.5 million truck drivers in the US. That number will be less than 100k in a shockingly short amount of time. What is this going to do to the economy? Trucking is a profession that has always been open to the less academically inclined. Even if you did poorly in school, you could always get your commercial license and drive trucks. Nobody gets rich by trucking, but it's a respectable living that can support a family. That is going away. 

What does this mean for real estate investors? Well, sadly (for the truckers), it means a fair number of them are going to lose their homes and enter the rental market. Do what you can now to get ready to pick up some bank-owned properties a few years down the line. 

Also, be prepared for political instability. Many rural areas that are already depressed are going to get hit hard, and they are going to expect Washington to do something for them. Things are going to get nasty. 

What do you see happening, both big-picture and RE-related, as a result of self driving cars? How can we best equip ourselves now to take advantage of this huge change that is barreling towards us?