Look into your crystal ball with me! (self-driving cars)

Look into your crystal ball with me! (self-driving cars)

Investor · Stevens Point, WI · Member since 2017 · 77 posts · 31 votes

Transportation is on the verge of the greatest shift since Henry Ford. Most car manufacturers are shooting for highway driving to be automated by the early 2020's, and fully automated in all situations by the 2030s. Within two decades, most new cars will drive themselves. Within three decades (that's by the time your 30-year note is up!), it is likely that human driving will be illegal on many roads. 

What does this mean for real estate? I'm extremely curious to hear the BP communities thoughts. 

As I see it, the biggest impact is going to be a drop in value in densely populated markets, with a corresponding surge in value for homes within a two-hour drive of those cities. People will be willing to accept significantly longer commutes, because they can sleep, watch TV or work during the commute. For many office workers, I suspect the typical day at the office will consist of two hours of "remote" work from the car, four hours in the office, then two more hours on the drive home. Many offices will have showers/changing rooms, because workers go to sleep in their car (it's got a fold-out bed in it, right?) and don't wake up until they reach the office. 

Long term, this means we're going to see fewer pockets of high prices and low prices. San Francisco and Denver are going to lose value, because there is so much space within a few hour drive of those cities where you can build a home. Many rural areas will see appreciation...but not as drastic as the drop in value in the cities. Of course, there will still be more and less expensive areas; it just won't be quite as drastic. 

There are 3.5 million truck drivers in the US. That number will be less than 100k in a shockingly short amount of time. What is this going to do to the economy? Trucking is a profession that has always been open to the less academically inclined. Even if you did poorly in school, you could always get your commercial license and drive trucks. Nobody gets rich by trucking, but it's a respectable living that can support a family. That is going away. 

What does this mean for real estate investors? Well, sadly (for the truckers), it means a fair number of them are going to lose their homes and enter the rental market. Do what you can now to get ready to pick up some bank-owned properties a few years down the line. 

Also, be prepared for political instability. Many rural areas that are already depressed are going to get hit hard, and they are going to expect Washington to do something for them. Things are going to get nasty. 

What do you see happening, both big-picture and RE-related, as a result of self driving cars? How can we best equip ourselves now to take advantage of this huge change that is barreling towards us? 

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Bill S.Pro Member
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Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
9y

Not sure I agree with your take that people will be willing to commute because the don't have to "drive". I also think our infrastructure will limit the number of cars because even if everything is fully automated there is only so much capacity on the roadways. I still see desirable real estate now still being desirable in 15 years. Right now the trend is toward density and reducing carbon footprint. I can't see that trend completely reversing in just 15 years. Even if the cars are automated there are limits to capacity. There is no way to accommodate such a shift. Even if we started building now for what we don't know, we would not have enough roadway capacity to allow everyone to live in a SFR up to 2 hours (120 miles) from a city center. Also, we can't build enough homes in outlying areas in that time frame to accommodate that vision. I agree some things will be very different in the auto industry but I don't see it changing real estate nearly as fast. Go out 40-60 years and you might have something.

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  • Real Estate Agent · Bellingham, WA · Member since 2017 · 427 posts · 182 votes
    9y

    The commercial driving market is definitely in for a tumble. Personally, I'm looking forward to sleeping! 

  • Bill S.Pro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    Not sure I agree with your take that people will be willing to commute because the don't have to "drive". I also think our infrastructure will limit the number of cars because even if everything is fully automated there is only so much capacity on the roadways. I still see desirable real estate now still being desirable in 15 years. Right now the trend is toward density and reducing carbon footprint. I can't see that trend completely reversing in just 15 years. Even if the cars are automated there are limits to capacity. There is no way to accommodate such a shift. Even if we started building now for what we don't know, we would not have enough roadway capacity to allow everyone to live in a SFR up to 2 hours (120 miles) from a city center. Also, we can't build enough homes in outlying areas in that time frame to accommodate that vision. I agree some things will be very different in the auto industry but I don't see it changing real estate nearly as fast. Go out 40-60 years and you might have something.

  • Scott TrenchPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    9y

    I agree with your premise but I suppose at this time that the opposite trend will take place - that the demand for city living will INCREASE, not plummet with self-driving cars. Sure, it will be faster to commute, thereby theoretically changing how far away people can live on the same average commute times. 

    BUT, I see that point and believe it will be overshadowed by some more subtle aspects of the sharing economy. Instead of paying upfront tens of thousands of dollars for my car, more and more people might shift to using a car only when needed. This means that fewer people will own cars, and that more people will be ride sharing or using cars to get from point A to point B.

    What does that mean for your consumer? It means that they will pay PER MILE or PER HOUR for transportation costs. Instead of indirectly seeing these costs pile on over months or years, they will be charged with every ride. Lower total cost of transportation, but more in-your-face.

    When folks see that, I suspect that living locally will be at a premium, more in demand than ever. Urban living can afford the same outdoor experiences as suburban or rural (just come to Denver and hang out at one of our many parks on a weekend for beautiful trees, open fields, and PLENTY of space to set up and hang out however you want - and you don't have to take care of a massive yard to get all that enjoyment! The city does that for you!). Will everyone agree with that? Of course not. Some people will always want their private outdoors. I believe that the trend, however, will be an increasing shift towards urban centers, not a decreasing one.

    Also, while yes, there is a ton of space near Denver, have you come by here? Most of that land is open fields, with no trees, and kind of horribly unpleasant grass and shrubs that are not very enjoyable to walk around in or hang out in. You are welcome to go build a house and move an hour Northeast of Denver. You will not have any mountain views, you will not have much of anything other than a plot of semi-arid grassland with some tough vegetation. You might as well go live in Kansas or Nebraska. Nothing wrong with it, but there is no appeal to the area that is comparable to the city of Denver. 

    Similarly, one can go live in the mountains. The mountains are not very forgiving, and folks from Evergreen (25 minutes outside Denver) experience a very different climate than us here in Denver, with relatively heavy snowfall, but an admittedly gorgeous summer. Convenient mountain towns with access to major transportation routes are not significantly less expensive than places on the front range. 

    Furthermore, water rights are very expensive in the front range, and regardless of transportation improvements, you are still going to have to buy the rights and then build the infrastructure to pipe water into all that space we have to the East. 

  • Mike CumbieBusiness Member
    REALTOR® · Brockport, NY · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    9y

    Fun topic!

    Couple things to think about with regards to spreading people out from city centers:

    Even if the 2 hour commute is tolerable/desirable etc, there is still fuel/electricity that has to be spent during that ride. How many people want to pay for 4 hours of driving a day? How many parents are going to now be willing to move their children 2 hours from the nearest hospital? There are some things that can't be delivered by mail? How far is the family willing to go to a grocery store, sure there are convenience stores but for a weekly trip? Commuting for childrens sporting events, DR/Dentist appointments? What is the future of shipping if there is a wide expanse, U.S.P.S still able to ship anywhere without prices skyrocketing?

    Jut some thoughts, I think people head to the center to be close and while transportation may be improving there are still plenty of things that people gather for.

  • Crossville, TN · Member since 2017 · 121 posts · 168 votes
    9y

    I remember 30 years ago that ALL of our electricity was supposed to be produced by solar and everyone would work a 4 day work week by this point in time. Oh, everyone also had to learn how to write their own computer programs because that was what the "educated" person would be doing. But looking at the more likely impact of self driving cars, this will come in the mobility of the elderly. So many people in their 70's and 80's have to dramatically change their lifestyles because they can no longer drive. Most people under 60 now are comfortable with technology and will be willing to embrace self driving cars in 20 years when the technology becomes common and their need for it develops.

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